Hello TechNetters,
Since the introduction of "bakelite" a half a century ago, the history of electronics
has been organics replacing ceramics. The reason is simple, organics are cheaper. We
saw this happen when plastic packages replaced leaded glass, polymer substrates
replacing ceramic hybrids and MCM-Ls replacing MCM-Cs and Ds. It's inevitable. With
the exception of high temperature applications, if you have something made out of a
ceramic, somewhere someone is engineering a polymer to offer comparable performance at
a lower price.
We think that the electronics industry is alive and well and will continue into the
next millenium.
Best regards, Dan Brandler, Ohmega Technologies, Inc.
Andrew Kowalewski wrote:
> Predictions in this business are really airy-fairy with the rapid changes taking
> place.
>
> I remember reading an article in "EDN" in September 1970 where an industry
> pundit spent five thousand words telling us all that the new-fangled multilayer
> boards were a thing of the past. With elaborate graphs and projections, all of
> the smarts were going to go into the silicon and the board would be reduced to
> connecting power, ground, simple inputs and outputs to an incredibly complex
> silicon chip.
>
> The article struck me as making a lot of sense at the time - I was just out of
> school and very impressionable.
>
> Now, thirty years later and looking back, I'm feeling very sheepish. I bet the
> author of that article is feeling more so. Sure the chips are incredibly more
> complex. But they are going into board level systems far more complex than
> anyone ever imagined in those days. For example, who could have predicted that
> the multimillion dollar mainframe of the time would be on a single, far more
> powerful board sitting on your desktop, linked worldwide, costing two week's
> wages?
>
> The future? I think I'm on safe ground here, just momentarily. Smaller, cheaper,
> faster, better. Much more complexity for designers, far less complexity for
> users. Quicker turnarounds for new products, with infinite customisation to
> target smaller and more diverse market segments, but globally to achieve
> economies of scale.
>
> I believe SMT isn't going away anytime soon, neither is the entire printed
> wiring board industry. I can't see anything on the horizon totally displacing
> either of these two. Changing and evolving? Of course. More headaches keeping up
> with the technology? Of course - part of our jobs, we take it in our stride
> eagerly.
>
> Andy Kowalewski Voice: Business hours (972) 550 6365
> Senior PCB Designer
> NEC America, Inc. Fax: Office (972) 518 4715
> 1525 West Walnut Hill Lane
> Irving. Texas. 75038 Email: [log in to unmask]
>
> ____________________Reply Separator____________________
> Subject: [TN] What's the future?
> Author: "Tempea; Ioan" <[log in to unmask]>
> Date: 7/30/99 12:12 PM
>
> Technos,
>
> since everybody is happy and has time to check spelling, I'm going to ask
> your oppinion on something totally non-technical.
>
> Many of you have more years in this industry than my age, so you saw it
> grow. How do you see the future of SMT? Will it continue to be a booming
> business, or, five years from now the assemblies will be one ASIC placed on
> a 1"x1" board and that's it, no more discrete components, no more wave
> soldering, no rework, etc.
>
> Shall I return to good old lathes and milling machines, or I'll be able to
> feed my children out of electronic manufacturing, many years from now?
>
> Actually my company is in shut down for two weeks and that's why I waste my
> time with stupid questions (sorry, but any oppinion is welcomed).
>
> Thanks, Ioan
>
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