Hi Dave! No problem- being put on the spot is OK with me.
Yes, if the quantity of Sn/Pb sold significantly decreases there could
be a price impact. It's just my opinion that the decrease in the amount
of Sn/Pb solder used will not be significant enough to make this happen
any time too soon. I could be wrong on this, but I still see many
manufacturers in many parts of the world that are hardly even
considering lead-free at this point- believe it or not.
More importantly, the solder market tends to be a real buyers' market.
If lead remains relatively cheap (which it will), and if someone wants
to buy Sn/Pb solder (which will happen), someone out there will sell it
cheap, which in turn will drive down the selling prices of everyone
else. A good example of this is the RMA flux example that you bring up.
Yes, these are not nearly as popular as they once were- but they're not
really any more expensive than the much more popular no-clean and water
soluble fluxes. In fact, I would bet that you could go out and buy RMA
paste or flux cheaper now than you could 5 or 10 years ago. Bad for us,
good for you.
Dave
-----Original Message-----
From: David D. Hillman [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2005 4:05 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [LF] Does anyone expect 63/37 Solder to disappear?
Hi Dave - Not to put you on the spot but, hypothetically, wouldn't you
agree that as the Sn/Pb user pool becomes significantly smaller the cost
of Sn/Pb is going to increase? The high performance (aka IPC Class 3
sector) OEMs are not the largest consumers of Sn/Pb solder and I suspect
that Sn/Pb availability is going to reduce significantly - attempting to
calculate the timeframe of the decline may be where the discussions
should be focused. I have been using the decline of "RMA" type flux
materials as my technology obsolesce model - the availability of the
"RMA" flux materials in the market is significantly smaller than it was
5 years ago. The problem with "RMA" flux materials being my technology
obsolesce model is that Pbfree solder is a much more complex issue.
Dave Hillman
Rockwell Collins
[log in to unmask]
David Suraski
<dsuraski@AIMSOLD
ER.COM>
To
Sent by: Leadfree [log in to unmask]
<[log in to unmask]
cc
>
Subject
Re: [LF] Does anyone expect 63/37
01/27/2005 02:38 Solder to disappear?
PM
Please respond to
"(Leadfree
Electronics
Assembly Forum)"
<[log in to unmask]
>; Please respond
to
David Suraski
<dsuraski@AIMSOLD
ER.COM>
Hal,
63/37 will be around as long as there are manufacturers that want to use
it. Which will be a very long time.
Regards,
David Suraski
AIM
-----Original Message-----
From: Hal Winslow [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2005 3:23 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [LF] Does anyone expect 63/37 Solder to disappear?
A general question (or more accurately fear) came up in a recent
discussion, and the scenario was as follows:
Even though an OEM company might be exempt from RoHS compliance
(specifically using lead free solder) most companies will have to
comply, so the marketplace will switch to predominantly SAC solder
assembly. This would reduce the number of contract assemblers and
solder suppliers who still offered "normal" tin lead solder assembly,
and we would face a defacto forced conversion to lead free.
In general, would you expect this "doomsday" scenario to come to pass?
Or will there still be enough markets allowing 63/37 type assembly that
if one chooses they could remain with our old favorite assembly method?
Thanks,
Hal
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