I must take this opportunity to share some very insightful readings from
 Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute who recently spoke at the
State of the Rockies Conference on "Winning the Oil Endgame."  You can
read about his innovations to eliminate/minimize the US dependence on
oil at www.oilendgame.com through manufacturing and government.  The
entire book is available online or you can read the Executive Summary .
. . quite a fascinating read!

Enjoy!



Mary Betsch, CHMM
EH&S Manager
Sanmina-SCI Corporation Plant 432
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Fountain, CO  80817
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>>> [log in to unmask] 4/8/2005 2:37:36 AM >>>
David,

Why do you think that I forecast that oil prices may rise to $100/bbl
by
the end of 2005, over a year ago? I see that oil futures are well into
the upper 50s, and that means that those who buy futures today are
hoping to make a good profit when they sell in 6 months, including
accrued interests. So this means the purchasers expect the price to be
significantly higher that the current price - and they have factored
in
potential losses in case of their crystal ball making a mistake. So,
this autumn, there is a probability of upper $60s, and perhaps my gut
feeling of over a year ago of $100/bbl won't be far wrong by when the
cold sets in.

$100/bbl will mean $3.50/USGal at the pump or more. Want to trade in
your SUV for a Prius? Do it now, before the market is flooded with
second-hand gas-guzzlers!

Brian

David Douthit wrote:
> Brian,
>
> The Federal Govenment is now forcasting an oil shortage the end of
this
> year! (see below)
>
> David A. Douthit
>
> ===========================
>
>
>
> UPDATE: EIA Raises Forecasts For China, World Oil Demand
>
> (Updates to add increase to 1Q 2006 oil demand.)
>
> NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The federal Energy Information Administration
on
> Thursday again raised its forecasts for Chinese oil demand, changes
that
> boosted the outlook for world oil consumption as a whole.
>
> The upward revisions in the EIA's monthly oil-market outlook
reinforce
> how demand - already so strong that it has pushed producers and
refiners
> to the limits of their capacity - continues to grow robustly despite
> soaring prices.
>
> Acknowledging the pressure demand is putting on markets, the EIA,
the
> statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, now sees U.S.
benchmark
> oil prices holding above $50 a barrel through 2006.
>
> "Several factors have contributed to the recent high crude oil
prices
> and are likely to keep prices at or near present highs," the EIA
wrote.
> "First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain
robust,
> despite high oil prices."
>
> While Chinese oil demand - like overall world consumption - isn't
> expected to grow as fast as it did in 2004, it is seen growing
faster
> than expected early this year. The EIA revised its forecasts for
Chinese
> oil demand in the second and fourth quarters up by 100,000 barrels a
day
> in each case, to 7.4 million and 7.7 million barrels a day,
respectively.
>
> The agency left its outlook for full-year Chinese demand and demand
> growth unchanged.
>
> In line with those increases, the EIA boosted its forecasts for
second
> and third quarter world oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day, to 83.1
> million and 84.6 million barrels a day, respectively.
>
> The agency raised its forecast for demand in the fourth quarter by
> 200,000 barrels a day, to 86.8 million barrels a day. Demand in that
> quarter was already expected to test producers' ability to pump more
> oil. The new forecast leaves fourth quarter demand 700,000 barrels a
day
> over projected supply.
>
> And the stress won't end this year. The EIA also raised its forecast
for
> first quarter 2006 oil demand by 300,000 barrels a day, to 86.9
million
> barrels a day, slightly pulling up the outlook for demand growth that
year.
>
>
>
>
> "Projections for 2005 and 2006 call for worldwide growth averaging
2.2
> million barrels per day, or 2.6 percent, per year, down from the
> 3.4-percent growth in 2004," the EIA said.
>
> Weaker than expected demand for gasoline in the U.S. this summer was
the
> exception to the EIA's upward revision. The EIA now sees gasoline
demand
> of 9.34 million barrels a day in the third quarter, 80,000 barrels a
day
> below its previous forecast. The change pulled the forecast for
overall
> U.S. oil demand in the quarter down by 30,000 barrels a day, to
20.95
> million barrels a day.
>
> Nevertheless, growth in gasoline demand will be strong enough to
push
> prices to new records, with the EIA forecasting summer prices of
$2.28 a
> gallon on average from April to September, up 38 cents from last
summer.
>
> "Despite high prices, demand is expected to continue to rise due to
the
> increasing number of drivers and vehicles and increasing per-capita
> vehicle miles traveled," the EIA said.
>
> -By Andrew Dowell, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4430; andrew.dowell@
> dowjones.com
>
> DowJones Newswire
>

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