I must take this opportunity to share some very insightful readings from Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute who recently spoke at the State of the Rockies Conference on "Winning the Oil Endgame." You can read about his innovations to eliminate/minimize the US dependence on oil at www.oilendgame.com through manufacturing and government. The entire book is available online or you can read the Executive Summary . . . quite a fascinating read! Enjoy! Mary Betsch, CHMM EH&S Manager Sanmina-SCI Corporation Plant 432 702 Bandley Drive Fountain, CO 80817 [log in to unmask] Phone: 719.382.2446 Cell: 719.491.9825 Fax: 719.382.2494 >>> [log in to unmask] 4/8/2005 2:37:36 AM >>> David, Why do you think that I forecast that oil prices may rise to $100/bbl by the end of 2005, over a year ago? I see that oil futures are well into the upper 50s, and that means that those who buy futures today are hoping to make a good profit when they sell in 6 months, including accrued interests. So this means the purchasers expect the price to be significantly higher that the current price - and they have factored in potential losses in case of their crystal ball making a mistake. So, this autumn, there is a probability of upper $60s, and perhaps my gut feeling of over a year ago of $100/bbl won't be far wrong by when the cold sets in. $100/bbl will mean $3.50/USGal at the pump or more. Want to trade in your SUV for a Prius? Do it now, before the market is flooded with second-hand gas-guzzlers! Brian David Douthit wrote: > Brian, > > The Federal Govenment is now forcasting an oil shortage the end of this > year! (see below) > > David A. Douthit > > =========================== > > > > UPDATE: EIA Raises Forecasts For China, World Oil Demand > > (Updates to add increase to 1Q 2006 oil demand.) > > NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The federal Energy Information Administration on > Thursday again raised its forecasts for Chinese oil demand, changes that > boosted the outlook for world oil consumption as a whole. > > The upward revisions in the EIA's monthly oil-market outlook reinforce > how demand - already so strong that it has pushed producers and refiners > to the limits of their capacity - continues to grow robustly despite > soaring prices. > > Acknowledging the pressure demand is putting on markets, the EIA, the > statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, now sees U.S. benchmark > oil prices holding above $50 a barrel through 2006. > > "Several factors have contributed to the recent high crude oil prices > and are likely to keep prices at or near present highs," the EIA wrote. > "First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain robust, > despite high oil prices." > > While Chinese oil demand - like overall world consumption - isn't > expected to grow as fast as it did in 2004, it is seen growing faster > than expected early this year. The EIA revised its forecasts for Chinese > oil demand in the second and fourth quarters up by 100,000 barrels a day > in each case, to 7.4 million and 7.7 million barrels a day, respectively. > > The agency left its outlook for full-year Chinese demand and demand > growth unchanged. > > In line with those increases, the EIA boosted its forecasts for second > and third quarter world oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day, to 83.1 > million and 84.6 million barrels a day, respectively. > > The agency raised its forecast for demand in the fourth quarter by > 200,000 barrels a day, to 86.8 million barrels a day. Demand in that > quarter was already expected to test producers' ability to pump more > oil. The new forecast leaves fourth quarter demand 700,000 barrels a day > over projected supply. > > And the stress won't end this year. The EIA also raised its forecast for > first quarter 2006 oil demand by 300,000 barrels a day, to 86.9 million > barrels a day, slightly pulling up the outlook for demand growth that year. > > > > > "Projections for 2005 and 2006 call for worldwide growth averaging 2.2 > million barrels per day, or 2.6 percent, per year, down from the > 3.4-percent growth in 2004," the EIA said. > > Weaker than expected demand for gasoline in the U.S. this summer was the > exception to the EIA's upward revision. The EIA now sees gasoline demand > of 9.34 million barrels a day in the third quarter, 80,000 barrels a day > below its previous forecast. The change pulled the forecast for overall > U.S. oil demand in the quarter down by 30,000 barrels a day, to 20.95 > million barrels a day. > > Nevertheless, growth in gasoline demand will be strong enough to push > prices to new records, with the EIA forecasting summer prices of $2.28 a > gallon on average from April to September, up 38 cents from last summer. > > "Despite high prices, demand is expected to continue to rise due to the > increasing number of drivers and vehicles and increasing per-capita > vehicle miles traveled," the EIA said. > > -By Andrew Dowell, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4430; andrew.dowell@ > dowjones.com > > DowJones Newswire > _____________________________________________________________________________ Scanned by Sanmina-SCI eShield _____________________________________________________________________________