Hi David,
Software packages that do what you asked for are 'black box' packages and are 
inherently dangerous. The reason for this is that the required input is not 
as straight-forward as it might appear, and proper input as well as 
interpretation of the output requires experience.
If you combine thermal cycling and vibration things get even more tricky, 
because now the sequence becomes important as well.
The example you give: "a chip capacitor in 0805 or 1206, which one will be 
more reliable, from a solder joint perspective and by what order of magnitude," 
immediately tells me that you do not have the required experience.
Those questions can easily be answered with the model given in IPC-D-279.



Werner



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