David, Why do you think that I forecast that oil prices may rise to $100/bbl by the end of 2005, over a year ago? I see that oil futures are well into the upper 50s, and that means that those who buy futures today are hoping to make a good profit when they sell in 6 months, including accrued interests. So this means the purchasers expect the price to be significantly higher that the current price - and they have factored in potential losses in case of their crystal ball making a mistake. So, this autumn, there is a probability of upper $60s, and perhaps my gut feeling of over a year ago of $100/bbl won't be far wrong by when the cold sets in. $100/bbl will mean $3.50/USGal at the pump or more. Want to trade in your SUV for a Prius? Do it now, before the market is flooded with second-hand gas-guzzlers! Brian David Douthit wrote: > Brian, > > The Federal Govenment is now forcasting an oil shortage the end of this > year! (see below) > > David A. Douthit > > =========================== > > > > UPDATE: EIA Raises Forecasts For China, World Oil Demand > > (Updates to add increase to 1Q 2006 oil demand.) > > NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The federal Energy Information Administration on > Thursday again raised its forecasts for Chinese oil demand, changes that > boosted the outlook for world oil consumption as a whole. > > The upward revisions in the EIA's monthly oil-market outlook reinforce > how demand - already so strong that it has pushed producers and refiners > to the limits of their capacity - continues to grow robustly despite > soaring prices. > > Acknowledging the pressure demand is putting on markets, the EIA, the > statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, now sees U.S. benchmark > oil prices holding above $50 a barrel through 2006. > > "Several factors have contributed to the recent high crude oil prices > and are likely to keep prices at or near present highs," the EIA wrote. > "First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain robust, > despite high oil prices." > > While Chinese oil demand - like overall world consumption - isn't > expected to grow as fast as it did in 2004, it is seen growing faster > than expected early this year. The EIA revised its forecasts for Chinese > oil demand in the second and fourth quarters up by 100,000 barrels a day > in each case, to 7.4 million and 7.7 million barrels a day, respectively. > > The agency left its outlook for full-year Chinese demand and demand > growth unchanged. > > In line with those increases, the EIA boosted its forecasts for second > and third quarter world oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day, to 83.1 > million and 84.6 million barrels a day, respectively. > > The agency raised its forecast for demand in the fourth quarter by > 200,000 barrels a day, to 86.8 million barrels a day. Demand in that > quarter was already expected to test producers' ability to pump more > oil. The new forecast leaves fourth quarter demand 700,000 barrels a day > over projected supply. > > And the stress won't end this year. The EIA also raised its forecast for > first quarter 2006 oil demand by 300,000 barrels a day, to 86.9 million > barrels a day, slightly pulling up the outlook for demand growth that year. > > > > > "Projections for 2005 and 2006 call for worldwide growth averaging 2.2 > million barrels per day, or 2.6 percent, per year, down from the > 3.4-percent growth in 2004," the EIA said. > > Weaker than expected demand for gasoline in the U.S. this summer was the > exception to the EIA's upward revision. The EIA now sees gasoline demand > of 9.34 million barrels a day in the third quarter, 80,000 barrels a day > below its previous forecast. The change pulled the forecast for overall > U.S. oil demand in the quarter down by 30,000 barrels a day, to 20.95 > million barrels a day. > > Nevertheless, growth in gasoline demand will be strong enough to push > prices to new records, with the EIA forecasting summer prices of $2.28 a > gallon on average from April to September, up 38 cents from last summer. > > "Despite high prices, demand is expected to continue to rise due to the > increasing number of drivers and vehicles and increasing per-capita > vehicle miles traveled," the EIA said. > > -By Andrew Dowell, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4430; andrew.dowell@ > dowjones.com > > DowJones Newswire >