In a message dated 03/17/2000 11:30:01 AM Central Standard Time, [log in to unmask] writes: << Dear Technetters, I writing here on the behalf of several concerned parties, including some European OEMs, CEMs and PCB Manufacturers. Some European manufacturers are worrying about Base Material Shortage, by shortage it is understood extended delivery Lead-Time. Some have seen extended delivery Lead-Time increased by 2 or 4 weeks, on some more complex Base Material, lead time can run to 14 weeks in some particular instance. Do you Technetters from all over the world and from the USA, are witnessing such increase in delivery time? Are worrying about it? Some of you are considering shutting off the plant for some days like some are considering doing in Europe if it doesn't improve? Would you comment on your concerns ? Is there any Base Material Manufacturers here who could give us the status for their companies? Please do not over-react to this posting and place big orders as this would only cause the situation to get worst for most likely no real reason. PLEASE no "Snow-Ball" effect. Thank you Very Best Regards Roland Info-Elec Ltd. Golden Eyes? - Live and Let Buy... www.PCB007.com Providing Global e-Business Solutions For The PCB Industry Roland Jaquet - Tel. +41-22-880-0405 - Fax. +41-22-880-0409 - Cell +41-79-203-3723 >> Roland, Below I've pasted an article I found on the internet about the glass fiber industry. It is somewhat dated though (1996). But from reading the article, there was quite a shortage back then, and according to the article many glass companies (Owens Corning, PPG, etc.) were working hard and opening new plants to increase capacity. Surely, it wouldn't take 4-years to ramp-up to meet demand would it?...or perhaps todays demand was underestimated... -Steve Gregory- MARKET FORECAST: GLASS FIBER INDUSTRY SURGES FORWARD Demand Outstrips Supply as Glassmakers Try to Catch Up Joined at the hip to the economy, the glass fibers industry is surging again. Used in applications ranging from satellite parabolic antennas to household insulation, the demand for glass fibers is so strong it exceeds supply. Producers are pushing hard to increase capacity. They expect supply pressures to ease late in 1996, but for the long term, they hope to achieve balance in supply and demand. Globally, the industry had a record year in 1995. Sales reached $4.3 billion, up 9% from $3.9 billion in 1994. That increase is largely due to burgeoning markets in the Pacific Rim and South America, with the double-digit growth in developing countries. The US market grew a more modest, but healthy 5.5%, from 1.04billion lb in 1994 to 1.1 billion lb in 1995. The previous year showed record growth, with a 4% increase to 1.04 billion lb in1994. Since 1990, US glass fiber production has grown by more than 50%, from 706 million lb/yr in 1990. In the past two years, there was extraordinary demand in all major markets. The strength of the marine market caught glassmakers by surprise. It had previously dropped 50% from the 1980s. The automotive, trucking, construction and anticorrosion markets all benefited from the strong US economy in 1994. * SUPPLY SHORTAGES In fact, demand was so high it outstripped supply. Last year's growth would have been higher had it not been for supply shortages. In 1994 and 1995, glassmakers worked flat out to meet demand. The Composites Institute (New York, NY) notes that growth of composites will be limited due to glass fiber shortages. Composite use in 1995 was almost 3180 billion lb, up 4.4% over 1994. The institute predicts 2.7% growth in 1996, to more than 3260 billion lb. * EASING SHORTAGES The three major glassmakers are adding capacity: Owens-Corning (Corning, NY) is adding 682 million lb/yr at its various plants around the world between now and 1998. Vetrotex CertainTeed (Valley Forge, PA) will increase glass fiber capacity20% by late 1996. The company is rebuilding one furnace out of five at its Witchita Falls (TX) plant. PPG has added a new facility in Chester (SC) with an investment of $50 million. Initial capacity will be 60 million lb/yr and it will add capacity as needed. The company points out that this is the first new plant that any major producer has built in North America in the past 15 years. PPG also has a facility in Shelby (NC) that is running at maximum capacity of 400 million lb/yr. Increasing capacity to catch up with supply demands is standard in an industry that is so dependent upon the general economy. There is always a long lead time in production and spending decisions must be carefully targeted since costs are high for increasing capacity. No glassmaker wants to add capacity, only to see the market crash. Leveling the fluctuations is a goal for Owens-Corning. The company hopes to end the up-and-down process of increasing capacity following price increases. It is increasing capacity through product rationalization and manufacturing simplification. For example, the Owens-Corning plant in Jackson (TN) is now streamlined. The plant produces only one product -- wet chopped strands -- which once were made in three facilities. The company is also aligning itself with growth markets and focusing on creating a strong global supply network. Through moves like these, Owens-Corning hopes take some of the cyclicity out of its business. Presently, it is producing 220 million more pounds than in 1994. Its capital expenditures totaled $200 million in 1994and 1995, and it plans an additional $105 million. US GLASS FIBER DEMAND AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS (lb/year) 1990 706 million 1994 1.04 billion 1995 1.1 billion 1996 1.14 billion 1997 1.19 billion 1998 1.24 billion 1999 1.29 billion 2000 1.34 billion * PREDICTIONS FOR GROWTH Efforts to manage the cycles are prudent. Still, the glass fibers industry will remain closely tied to the economy. As such, there is always the risk of a downturn in the future. Given that possibility, US glass fiber production is expected to increase4%/yr over the next five years on an average annual basis. In three primary areas of the glass fibers market, growth expectations hover around 4%. In the electrical/electronic segment, growth is expected at 3.5%/yr through 2000. A large portion of this business is in printed circuit boards, which is shows steady but slow growth. Fiber optics shows high growth, in double digits, with rates as high as 20% to 30% in certain regions. Other uses include telecommunications drop wires and satellite antennas. In transportation, look for growth rates of 5%/yr through 2000. There is tremendous growth potential in this segment as composites become more accepted. A prime advantage is their ability to consolidate parts and simplify manufacturing. Owens-Corning points to the superplug and radiator support in the Ford Taurus, which previously needed 20 metal parts made at 20 workstations. Now one composite part is snapped into place, offering weight savings and simplified manufacturing along with a reduction in labor and equipment. CertainTeed highlights a recent success at the Composite Institute's Expo: A big prizewinner was a refrigerated railcar molded with fiber-reinforced plastic. This is an application that didn't exist previously. Other applications include helicopter blades and armored vehicles and tanks. In a third major area, construction, 4% growth rates are expected through 2000. Infrastructure applications worldwide provide the highest growth in replacing existing concrete and steel. Building uses include tubs, shower stalls and roofing, and non building applications include utility poles, transmission towers, and piping. * GLOBAL OUTLOOK The worldwide picture for glass fibers is strong. Global demand was 3.3 billion lb in 1995, and growth rates should average 5%/yr through 2000. In Western Europe, where close to a billion lb of glass fibers were sold in 1995, growth is expected at 5.5% over the next five years. In Eastern Europe, including the former Soviet Union, demand for glass fibers reached 300million lb in 1995 but, at 3%/yr, the outlook is less optimistic because of the political situation. In the Pacific Rim, where 800 million lb were sold in 1995,growth could exceed 10% over the next five years, not including Japan. Representing about half the Pacific Rim, Japan's use may grow a modest 2%/yr. Predicted growth in Korea may be 8% to 10%.In Asia and in South America, new markets have opened up. Developing countries are becoming more affluent and want utilities, roads, bridges and other infrastructure. In certain countries, rates could jump as high as 15% to 20%. Leap frogging is apparent in these developing areas where end users choose composites for first-time builds, thereby skipping metals altogether. In telecommunications, there is leapfrogging over copper, straight to fiber-optic filaments. * PRICE INCREASES: 1996 Glass fiber prices are returning to levels reached during the1980s. Prices had peaked in 1988 and 1989, during the last highpoint in demand. During the early 1990s, prices eroded when global supply exceeded demand. In 1995, following the demand recovery, the average price returned almost to 1988-1989 levels. On average, reinforcements cost $1/lb. Glassmakers expect more increases, but at a slower rate in 1996 than in 1994-1995. ############################################################## TechNet Mail List provided as a free service by IPC using LISTSERV 1.8c ############################################################## To subscribe/unsubscribe, send a message to [log in to unmask] with following text in the body: To subscribe: SUBSCRIBE TECHNET <your full name> To unsubscribe: SIGNOFF TECHNET ############################################################## Please visit IPC web site (http://www.ipc.org/html/forum.htm) for additional information. If you need assistance - contact Keach Sasamori at [log in to unmask] or 847-509-9700 ext.5315 ##############################################################