Hi Loan,
In my humble opinion; Fear not for the loss of work, provided you stay
current with technology.
Here is a string of assorted predictions based upon rhetoric and hearsay:
* SMT will continue to grow. Just as we have seen it advance in the recent
past it will inevitably propagate into the future, at least for our
lifetime. An example of this, just a few years ago (late seventies, early
eighties) SMT was forbidden for the military, NASA and aerospace
applications even as many other applications were waist deep into it. Take a
look around today!
* For many companies the disappearance of through hole technology will not
happen overnight. Many components are not available in SMT yet and may not
be cost effective for quite a while. Cost efficient packaging is driving the
electronic industry.
* The relentless pressures of size weight and volume reduction will drive
toward more MCM as well as direct chip attach.
* Discrete components will not go away even with advancement of embedded
capacitance and resistance. This is again due to cost and efficiency.
* Gordon Moore (Moore's law) stated that transistor densities on a single
chip would continue to double every two years! We've seen a betterment of
his prediction from 1965!
* As we see the package technology increases of finer conductor widths .25,
.18, .13 micron etc. and the development advanced materials etc. eventually
there will be an end to minaturization. A challenge that will not be easily
overcome is that when shrinking transistors, their dimensions approach the
wavelength of visible light . The light can't be accurately be focused
through the masks to create the pattern on silicon wafers, so shorter
wavelength electromagnetic radiation like ultra violet light or X-ray must
be used. There is a wall that will be hit sometime in the future. But
mankind will probably go around it!
I feel comfortable stating you need not fear a loss of SMT work in the next
millenium!
Happy Friday!
Mike Beckman
Packaging Engineer [log in to unmask]
CH5-157 Ofc. (602) 554-4232
5000 W. Chandler Blvd. Fax (602) 554-7615
Chandler, Arizona 85226 Pgr. (602) 340-3983
-----Original Message-----
From: Tempea, Ioan [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Friday, July 30, 1999 9:12 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [TN] What's the future?
Technos,
since everybody is happy and has time to check spelling, I'm going to ask
your oppinion on something totally non-technical.
Many of you have more years in this industry than my age, so you saw it
grow. How do you see the future of SMT? Will it continue to be a booming
business, or, five years from now the assemblies will be one ASIC placed on
a 1"x1" board and that's it, no more discrete components, no more wave
soldering, no rework, etc.
Shall I return to good old lathes and milling machines, or I'll be able to
feed my children out of electronic manufacturing, many years from now?
Actually my company is in shut down for two weeks and that's why I waste my
time with stupid questions (sorry, but any oppinion is welcomed).
Thanks, Ioan
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