Predictions in this business are really airy-fairy with the rapid changes taking
place.
I remember reading an article in "EDN" in September 1970 where an industry
pundit spent five thousand words telling us all that the new-fangled multilayer
boards were a thing of the past. With elaborate graphs and projections, all of
the smarts were going to go into the silicon and the board would be reduced to
connecting power, ground, simple inputs and outputs to an incredibly complex
silicon chip.
The article struck me as making a lot of sense at the time - I was just out of
school and very impressionable.
Now, thirty years later and looking back, I'm feeling very sheepish. I bet the
author of that article is feeling more so. Sure the chips are incredibly more
complex. But they are going into board level systems far more complex than
anyone ever imagined in those days. For example, who could have predicted that
the multimillion dollar mainframe of the time would be on a single, far more
powerful board sitting on your desktop, linked worldwide, costing two week's
wages?
The future? I think I'm on safe ground here, just momentarily. Smaller, cheaper,
faster, better. Much more complexity for designers, far less complexity for
users. Quicker turnarounds for new products, with infinite customisation to
target smaller and more diverse market segments, but globally to achieve
economies of scale.
I believe SMT isn't going away anytime soon, neither is the entire printed
wiring board industry. I can't see anything on the horizon totally displacing
either of these two. Changing and evolving? Of course. More headaches keeping up
with the technology? Of course - part of our jobs, we take it in our stride
eagerly.
Andy Kowalewski Voice: Business hours (972) 550 6365
Senior PCB Designer
NEC America, Inc. Fax: Office (972) 518 4715
1525 West Walnut Hill Lane
Irving. Texas. 75038 Email: [log in to unmask]
____________________Reply Separator____________________
Subject: [TN] What's the future?
Author: "Tempea; Ioan" <[log in to unmask]>
Date: 7/30/99 12:12 PM
Technos,
since everybody is happy and has time to check spelling, I'm going to ask
your oppinion on something totally non-technical.
Many of you have more years in this industry than my age, so you saw it
grow. How do you see the future of SMT? Will it continue to be a booming
business, or, five years from now the assemblies will be one ASIC placed on
a 1"x1" board and that's it, no more discrete components, no more wave
soldering, no rework, etc.
Shall I return to good old lathes and milling machines, or I'll be able to
feed my children out of electronic manufacturing, many years from now?
Actually my company is in shut down for two weeks and that's why I waste my
time with stupid questions (sorry, but any oppinion is welcomed).
Thanks, Ioan
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