Patty,
Thanks for your comments.  Here is the reply that I sent Dieter a few days ago.  At the time I inadvertantly 
did not copy all of Technet.
Walt
_________________________________________________________________________________________
--- On Tue, 6 May 97 19:39:04 Pacific Daylight Time  [log in to unmask] wrote:
Dieter,

The IPC, especially through its (Technology Marketing Research Council(TMRC), studies the global PCB market, 

collects data on its size and scope and commissions various forecasts.  I am active in the TMRC and also 
author the "Market Outlook" column for CicuiTree magazine.  You can find my recent articles at:
http://www.mortonintl.com/chem/elec/outlelec.htm

Both the IPC (www.ipc.org) and Automata (www.automata.com) websites also have my articles.

While the stock market is a useful indicator of the health of the economy and business/consumer confidence, 
its performance is somewhat driven by emotions.  I believe that you should use some other indicators which 
are more empirical and less driven by the whims of the investment community.

I use 12/12 rate of change forecasting as one method to predict PCB growth.  

1) Interest rates are one good long leading indicator.  If you plot the 12/12 rate of change of the 
reciprocal of 90 day Treasury bill interest rates versus PCB shipments you will find that T-Bills lead by 
about a year.

2) The US Dept of Commerce composite indicator is also useful.  Its 12/12 rate of change leads PCBs by 6-9 
months or more.

3) Industrial production is a coincident indicator

4) The Electronic Buyers News Quest index is a reasonable short term (2-4 months) indicator.  It is based 
upon the reports of purchasing managers serving the electronic industry.   

5) The 3/12 rate of change of electronic equipment bookings is also very useful.

6) Semiconductor bookings were also very helpful.  Unfortunately the SIA (Seimiconductor Industry 
Association) stopped releasing booking data at the end of 1996.  Also there were a number of electronic 
industry composite indices which depended upon semiconductor bookings.  Cahners had an early warning index 
which used this data.  It is no longer available. 

In practice I use a combination of all of these to forecast our business at Morton Electronic Materials.  
Read a few of my articles and then contact me if you have questions.  Join the IPC TMRC and you will get a 
vast amount of market data.  Contact Kim Sterling at 847-509-9700 extension 305 for membership information 
or e-mail Kim at [log in to unmask]
 

Hope this helps

Walt Custer

--- On Tue, 6 May 1997 21:46:59 -0400  Dieter Miese <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
What are the best market indicators that forecast market growth in the
PWB industry in the States?

Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrial average reached an all time high
of 7200 today,

Is this an true indicator of a 'Bull Market' in the PWB industry?

I have not seen many business directed postings besides occasional sales
and marketing by companies.  

But, if anyone in the group has a comment to make, I would appreciate
the input.

Thank you,
 Dieter 


Herr Dieter Miese
3620 Kaff die Miesen 
Auf den Bergen

--------------------------------------------------------
Name: Walt Custer
E-mail: [log in to unmask] or [log in to unmask]
Date: 05/08/97
Time: 06:01:44
--------------------------------------------------------

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