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Date: | Thu, 25 May 95 14:10:30 |
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As I've been informally surveying our customers I've seen two trends - the first
is that we're well away from bottoming out on the "smaller and quicker" progress
in component design. My impression is that there's at least three to five years
of known developments (existing designs to be implemented) and an unknown number
of years beyond that for the integration of designs not existing yet. I don't
believe anyone can predict the end to the trend - there are too many unknowns.
The other trend that I've seen that's perhaps more relevant to the question is
that the older components and designs, and the products based on them, are not
always being discarded as newer designs come along to replace them. There's
still plenty of through-hole mnanufacturing going on, and there's an active
market for used processing machines as well. Stereophiles have even brought back
glass radio tubes.
The relevant quesion is not whether the equipment will be "obsolete" in three or
four years, but whether buying new equipment today will allow you to enter
markets you want to enter or keep those you have. It's a given that the
equipment will not be leading edge in that time. However, it should still do the
job it was designed for, and that job will probably still be needed to be done
by someone somewhere.
A good source for specific information on some pretty remarkable new component
designs are white papers from Micro SMT in San Jose, which is developing
leadless components that look like dust to the naked eye, as well as leaded
packages that replace common quads that are 10 times their size. They can be
reached at (408) 955-9180. Their white papers also list manufacturers and models
of machines that can handle their component designs, though I doubt that
includes the smallest of them. It's primarily their white papers (most other
developers I've contacted weren't as forthcoming with information as Micro SMT
was) that I base my estimate of three to four years to fully integrate existing
designs.
Reed Hopkins
User Development Manager
Metcal, Inc.
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Subject: COMPONENT TRENDS
From: [log in to unmask] at Internet-Mail
Date: 5/25/95 7:49 AM
We are considering replacing our present pick and place machine (10 yrs old)
with a modern system. My management is concerned that whatever we purchase
today might be obsolete in 3-5 years. The system which I have in mind has the
capability of placing 15 mil pitch leaded components, 0402s, and BGAs, pretty
much the latest technologies.
My question is this, does anyone have a grasp on where component trends are
leading? Is component packaging going to be smaller still (than 0402s) or a
different technology altogether which will render my state-of-the-art placement
system obsolete? What does the future hold for components and placement
systems?
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