What is the future of electronics assembly? What a great subject for a TechNet thread!To understand that future I believe it is necessary to ask and answer somequestions about the Surface Mount Technology that dominates today's electronic assembly.
First, for definition, we are talking mainstream. Through hole technology goes on, long displaced by SMT in the mainstream. SMT, also, will go on, after it loses dominance.Even solder and solder paste will find some use.
Second, what even prompts the question? I submit that many who are on today's front linesof electronic assembly are troubled about SMT limits and yield-threatening problems.Anyone who peruses TechNet threads from these doughty front line fighters must be impressed with the titles that point over and over again to the problems of solder paste, both eutectic and lead free, whatever its composition.
No SMT issue threatens its future dominance so much as the density limitations of solder joints. Stenciling and reflowing quarter millimeter separated solder joint centers is just the horrendous beginning of tomorrow's assembly problems. In 2014, Intel promises 14 nanometer chip features.That translates to 3 billion and more transistors per chip. I haven't done the Rent's Rule calculation yet, but the count of I-O's will certainly exceed the 2000 of Ivy Bridge. How are you going to squeeze them into the same footprint?
One TechNet poster on this issue mentioned "Joe Fjelstad's Occam" process. Is that the ghost lingering in the background of this discussion? I'd like to restate just how it might fit into it.
First, with embedded components, using proven technology from 3M, Oak Mitsui, Ticer, DuPont, Dow, etc, most solder joints would be replaced by plated vias down to the lands.Joe proposes a more general solution that would include all leaded, fully tested active and passive components as candidates. Others are looking at bare die for the active components, Known Good Die. There is a powerful movement afoot in the IC packaging world to resurrect KGD. It is driven by 3D die stacking needs but how opportune for the next gen of all electronic assembly! The $ for better metrology will be surely forthcoming.(MEPTEC sponsored an illuminating presentation, November 10, 2011. Recommended.)
"Joe Fjelstad's Occam" process would separate the component mounting substrate from the interconnection substrate. All or most component connections would be made in the now underutilized third dimension Think of the enhanced freedom-- no circuit lines constraining component placement density. That is just the beginning -- reduced cross-talk and potentially much greater density, simpler, easier circuit fabrication and assembly. High speed design would be vastly simplified. Conductive Anodic Filament leakage problems would vanish along with glass because components, free of interconnect constraints would be mounted on anodized aluminum. Thermal dissipation problems would go away.
Fabrication and assembly would be co-located, shortening the supply chain.Pick and place equipment would sill be needed, but paste printers and reflow ovens would go away--in the mainstream, along with solder paste--in the mainstream.
Most assembly engineers and other personnel would be needed in the merged fab-assembly operations. It all offers new opportunities for fabricators, assemblers, and for U.S. more efficient, more productive manufacturing.
Intel once foreshadowed all this with the BBUL package, then shelved it. Time is coming to resurrect it.
--- On Tue, 1/17/12, Larry Dzaugis <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
From: Larry Dzaugis <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: [TN] What is the future of electronics assembly?
To: [log in to unmask]
Date: Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 9:41 AM
The only certainty is that 10 years from now the products will be
smaller, cheaper, faster time to market. Moore's law will be near its
end (predicted every 5 years for the last 20), its held up well for
being an empirically determined model. I/O will increase and with
higher integration levels of components, more embedded software, test
will continue to require heroic efforts to launch new products.
Legacy products and processes will still be important. I lived in a
town with 2 whip factories, its down to one very successful buggy whip
factory now.
Where will bleeding edge products be developed? That is changing as
production moves and talent ages. Young turks in growing locations
coming up with new ideas and gaining the experience to execute them
and old farts in flat growth areas slowing leaving the business.
None of us predicted that 30 years ago China would be the workshop to
the world today.That will change little in 10 years, it could change
radically in 20 years.
I do not see a game changing assembly technology like the
introduction of vision in SMT equipment 20 years ago.I see faster
processors allowing higher precision and faster speeds and more areas
where vision can be cost effectively applied, x-ray price /performance
continues to improve.
On 1/17/12, Matthias Mansfeld <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> On 17 Jan 2012 at 9:37, David D. Hillman wrote:
>
>> And to reinforce Mike's sage words, I was told "............. the wave
>> soldering process is a dinosaur and will be extinct in a few
>> years"............... this wisdom was given to me in 1988!
>
> "... the printed circuit board will be extinct in a few years"...
> (even some more years ago....) :-)))
>
> Best regardsMatthias Mansfeld
>
> --
> Matthias Mansfeld Elektronik
> * Printed Circuit Board Design and Assembly
> Neithardtstr. 3, D-85540 Haar, GERMANY
> Phone: +49-89-4620 0937, Fax: +49-89-4620 0938
> E-Mail: [log in to unmask]
> Internet: http://www.mansfeld-elektronik.de
>
>
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