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January 2012

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Subject:
From:
Inge Hernefjord <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
TechNet E-Mail Forum <[log in to unmask]>, Inge Hernefjord <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Tue, 17 Jan 2012 22:11:26 +0100
Content-Type:
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The industries pay huge amounts of money on future studies (institutes,
research within own industry, unis, banks etc), and most of them do like
ancient prophets in Israel did: they tell what the kings wanted to hear.
And those prophets could expect both money and glory. Prophets who told the
truth were not popular and lost their heads. In fact, most resent prognosis
have been too fantasiful.  My own prediction in short terms:

A. Not much has happened to the PWBs the last two decades.
B. Most of the progress has been on the software.
C. Also in the semi sphere.
D. Despite B+C, the packages are still all the same.
E. The world still swallows electronics of all kinds, from nonsence crap to
sophisticated electronics.
F. The middle class develop all around in former poor countries, and they
buy electronics like mad.
G. The leading nations (USA and some others) can't produce revolutioning
electronics in same speed as earlier.
H. Corruption, bank flops, economical tsunamis will still be a threat.
I.  China and the other tigers have caught us in a trap: we don't invest in
quality like before, but love the low price products.
j. We try desperately to find so called niches (extreme tech, specials) but
the tigers are soon in our backs or even pass.
J. Many american industries don't have a nickel for investments and funds
are not gold mines either.
K In the tiger woods a new manufacturing plant is inaugerated every each
hour.  USA?
L. Finally, the enormous US MIL industry's budget is on the fall (e.g. the
war in Afganistan is paid with Chinese credit cards)

What will happen the next ten years to the american megastars and all down
to the one-man fixer? Based on the above, my prediction:

Nothing at all! Nothing sensational either up or down. The US spirit still
exists and I think the nation just takes a deep breath for some years to
fix new strategies and make the wheels spin again. USA is small compared to
the total of the tiger countries (China, Turkey, Brazil, Korea, Thailand,
Malaysia and a lot more) and the nearest years are critical. China  is like
a bulldozer that can't be stopped, and so will more bulldozers appear. I
guess that the future of the US depends on what leader(s) the country will
have. And if people can put arrogance aside and change selfishness into
self-sacrifice. I think that the US will surprise the others in this poker
game.  On hand are some winning cards: world's most international pool of
creative people, business contacts in every corner of the planet,
best universities, widest inter-multi-disciplinary science. Not bad!

These were many words and I hope they have some relevance.

So, copy the last ten years and paste for the next ones. Stay strong,
clench fist. PWB's will still be assembled in the country, pessimists will
loose, but the many optimists will expand. As usual

Inge

PS. More philosofy than tech, but tech is dependent of the former.

On 17 January 2012 15:49, Ioan Tempea <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> Dear Technos,
>
>
>
> I can't help but thinking about the future of our trade. Will electronics
> assembly, the way we are doing it now, still be around 5 years from now?
>
>
>
> I mean, with printed electronics and nano materials, a manufacturing plant
> equipped with solder paste printers, insertion machines and wave, will
> still be in use? Even Joe Fjelstad's Occam process requires completely
> different machineries.
>
>
>
> As you might have guessed, the bottom line is: what technologies and
> equipment should we start looking at NOW, so that we still be able to make
> ends meet by the end of the decade?
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
>
>
> Ioan Tempea, ing.
> Ingénieur Principal de Fabrication / Senior Manufacturing Engineer
> T | 450.967.7100 ext.244
> E | [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
> W | www.digico.cc <http://www.digico.cc/>
>
>
>  N'imprimer que si nécessaire - Print only if you must
>
>
>
>
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