The only certainty is that 10 years from now the products will be
smaller, cheaper, faster time to market. Moore's law will be near its
end (predicted every 5 years for the last 20), its held up well for
being an empirically determined model. I/O will increase and with
higher integration levels of components, more embedded software, test
will continue to require heroic efforts to launch new products.

Legacy products and processes will still be important. I lived in a
town with 2 whip factories, its down to one very successful buggy whip
factory now.

Where will bleeding edge products be developed? That is changing as
production moves and talent ages. Young turks in growing locations
coming up with new ideas and gaining the experience to execute them
and old farts in flat growth areas slowing leaving the business.

None of us predicted that 30 years ago China would be the workshop to
the world today.That will change little in 10 years, it could change
radically in 20 years.

 I do not see a game changing assembly technology like the
introduction of vision in SMT equipment 20 years ago.I see faster
processors allowing higher precision and faster speeds and more areas
where vision can be cost effectively applied, x-ray price /performance
continues to improve.

On 1/17/12, Matthias Mansfeld <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> On 17 Jan 2012 at 9:37, David D. Hillman wrote:
>
>> And to reinforce Mike's sage words, I was told "............. the wave
>> soldering process is a dinosaur and will be extinct in a few
>> years"............... this wisdom was given to me in 1988!
>
> "... the printed circuit board will be extinct in a few years"...
> (even some more years ago....) :-)))
>
> Best regardsMatthias Mansfeld
>
> --
> Matthias Mansfeld Elektronik
> * Printed Circuit Board Design and Assembly
> Neithardtstr. 3, D-85540 Haar, GERMANY
> Phone: +49-89-4620 0937, Fax: +49-89-4620 0938
> E-Mail: [log in to unmask]
> Internet: http://www.mansfeld-elektronik.de
>
>
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