With many products, the best direction to improve density is vertical (improved stacking). The best improvement we've done in this area so far is pre-packaged stacked memory modules. The limitation is improved vertical interconnects. Hoards of R&D dollars have been poured into this over the past few decades. Right now the best-looking candidate is Through-Silicon Vias.
As we've seen increasing densities, the "hot spot" problem has become more significant, but better IC fabrication processes and programming practices seem to be able to keep that under control. The new Android-based phones are extremely impressive in that area. However, thermal problems will still continue to be a serious challenge to higher density, and I think that pumped liquid cooling systems will find their way into the consumer computing equipment market within the next decade.
As with the other respondents, these are just guesses!
Wayne Thayer
-----Original Message-----
From: TechNet [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Bev Christian
Sent: Sunday, August 15, 2010 5:43 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [TN] limits to miniaturization
Another limiting factor is - humans. Seeing as we are not going to be
miniaturized any time soon, a Zoolander phone is not really going to go over
well. Of course that assumes people will want a key pad/touch screen as
opposed to something "in-head". I personally find the latter scary.
Bev
-----Original Message-----
From: TechNet [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Brian Ellis
Sent: Sunday, August 15, 2010 11:27 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [TN] limits to miniaturization
I don't pretend to be an expert at miniaturisation but there are three
different criteria which I think have to be taken into account:
- probably the most important is the active component. There are limits
to the width of features within semiconductors, under which reliability
starts to fall vertiginously. This can be partially overcome by stacking
chips to get more features into a given volume.
- then there is the passive component and it is possible that the limit
here is the ability for insertion machinery to handle them with
sufficient accuracy of placement, quite apart from the difficulty of
actually manufacturing these reduced size components
- the third limitation is in the interconnection between the components
whether they be active or passive. This is the role of the printed or
hybrid circuit and it is possible that we have not reached the limit
but, doing so, may increase the costs exponentially.
Then you have to consider the assembly of all three of these criteria
into something that can be made to work. Over the past 20 years or so
our industry has passed through a revolution which has allowed extreme
miniaturisation with reduced costs for the final product. In my opinion,
it is probable that this state of affairs will come to an end in the
very near future. Yes, there will be increased miniaturisation but only
for those applications where it is absolutely essential because prices
will probably rise rather than descend in order to meet the
technological parameters.
What I have written here is pure opinion with a little dash of
speculation. Take it for what it is worth (and that is maybe nothing!).
As a futurologist my track record has been average, with some mistakes
and some successes.
Brian
On 14/08/2010 01:07, Sharon Starr wrote:
> Hello TechNetters,
>
> I am new on TechNet and I'm more of business/economics geek than a techie,
so I hope you'll bear with me if I ask some obvious questions. I am
developing a study of technology trends in the electronics interconnect
industry for IPC. One of the trends we're looking at is miniaturization.
With nanotechnology coming into play, I'm wondering where the limits are and
what roadblocks might be slowing the trend.
>
> So here's my question: apart from end-use requirements, what factors
currently limit continued miniaturization in circuitry dimensions? Do you
see solutions to these limiting factors in the works? Do any of them seem
insurmountable? Your ideas, opinions or predictions will be very helpful.
>
> With thanks,
> Sharon
>
> Sharon Starr
> Director of Market Research
> IPC - Association Connecting Electronics Industries(r)
> 3000 Lakeside Drive
> Suite 309 S
> Bannockburn, IL 60015-1249 USA
> +1 847-597-2817 tel
> +1 847-597-2845 fax
> [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>
> www.ipc.org<http://www.ipc.org>
>
>
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