I had a look also at IBM's CEO report. May be boring reading for some, but I 
found it rather interesting. What Big Blue think can not be nonsense. Two 
keywords (as I found it) were of special interest : CHANGE and SKILL.  If 
you don't want read the report, the message to you all the nearest time, 
seems to be :
1. the US electronics industies must leave the traditional way rather 
quickly and go to.....
2. the US electronic industries will seek in every corner for skilled 
engineers (not only them of course)

(One could also add what a known national economist said to me recently:
3. We need get back the entrepeneurs.)

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/pdf/gbe03105-usen-ceo-electronics.pdf

Isn't it a glimpse of hope?



/Inge

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Inge" <[log in to unmask]>
To: "Inge" <[log in to unmask]>; "TechNet E-Mail Forum" 
<[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 22, 2009 7:00 PM
Subject: Sustainable Recovery Expected in 2010 for Electronics Industry


> Hi all,
> I've read several positive reports, one of many below. Think we need some
> peptalk also, don't we?  Market Research Inc have lots of future studies 
> for
> the US electronics industry, but they are so expensive to buy. Guess at
> least some of your leaders have bought a number of these qualified future
> research reports (some reports are maybe crap, but there are certainly 
> those
> with a healthy view )
> /Inge
>
>
>      Gartner: Sustainable Recovery Expected in 2010 for Electronics
> Industry
>      Written by Administrator
>      Tuesday, 23 June 2009
>      STAMFORD, CT - Electronic equipment markets should begin a recovery 
> in
> the fourth quarter of 2009, enabling the electronics industry to enter 
> into
> a sustained recovery in the second half of 2010, with a reacceleration in
> sales in 2011, according to Gartner Inc.
>
>
>      "Almost all sectors of the electronic equipment market are still
> declining, and we will need to see markets hit bottom before we see the
> waves of recovery and a rebound to positive growth," said Klaus Rinnen,
> managing vice president at Gartner's semiconductor manufacturing group. 
> "The
> wider process of rebounding will occur over a period of approximately two
> years."
>
>
>
>
>      Although the PC market is already reaching the bottom of its growth
> pattern, Rinnen said the majority of electronics segments would not reach
> bottom until the second half of 2009. He suggested a possibility of a
> W-shaped recovery pattern that, while less likely, could push sustainable
> growth into 2011.
>
>
>
>
>      "Although there are signs that the market will improve over the next
> few years, we do not expect semiconductor sales to regain the 2007 peak
> sales levels during the current five-year forecast period, ending in 
> 2013,"
> said Jim Tully, vice president and analyst at Gartner.
>
>
>
>
>      It is anticipated PCs and cellphones will be among the lead segments
> to bottom out and start the charge for the recovery. However, Gartner 
> warned
> that although improvement in electronics inventories, in combination with
> government stimulus, will likely put a halt to the current slide in the
> market, the question is one of timing between these two events.
>
>
>
>
>      If economic growth and government stimulus are slow to materialize,
> the industry could see a demand and production lift, followed by a
> languishing demand period, and even a risk of overproduction in mid-2009.
> Such events could not only delay the bottoming of segments, but also force 
> a
> second and lower bottom for the PC market, the firm says.
>
>
>
>
>      Gartner does not expect the onset of a sustainable recovery to set in
> before the second quarter of 2010. Cellphones are projected to be the 
> first
> market to achieve a sustainable recovery, edging PCs by about one quarter.
> For the industry as a whole, sustainable recovery will take longer as
> higher-priced and highly consumer-dependent segments are delayed.
>
>
>
>
>      Analysts at the firm said awareness of risk is a must for industry
> players to maximize opportunities. In the near term, careful attention 
> must
> be given to the expected recovery pattern of each sector, and a response
> must be planned, as those vendors with the most credible response to these
> patterns will be the ones that emerge from the downturn as winners.
>
> 

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