Thanks Brian
 
As always, I appreciate reading your thoughts on this important  topic. I am 
certain I won't be around to see if you are right but at least  there will be 
(I trust) a record of your prediction for folks to look back on. 
 
As for your final statement, I like your choice for a last word...  ;-)  
 
It is challenging task to try and guess at the future and as you know  well, 
depending on assumptions, final results can vary  widely. Many are predicting 
a US population of 1 billion people in 2100 but  I read recently an 
interesting paper by Paul Chefurka that  ties world population to energy wherein he 
projects a total world  population of 1 billion people in 2100. Again I won't be 
around for the final  results but he makes a thoughtful argument and 
assessment. 
 
http://www.courtfool.info/en_World_Energy_and_Population.htm
 
Below is his concluding statement:
 
Conclusions
 
"All the research I have done for this paper has convinced  me that the human 
race is now out of time. We are staring at hard limits on our  activities and 
numbers, imposed by energy constraints and ecological damage.  There is no 
time left to mitigate the situation, and no way to bargain or  engineer our way 
out of it. It is what it is, and neither Mother Nature nor the  Laws of 
Physics are open to negotiation.

We have come to this point so  suddenly that most of us have not yet realized 
it. While it may take another  twenty years for the full effects to sink in, 
the first impacts from oil  depletion (the net oil export crisis) will be felt 
within five years. Given the  size of our civilization and the extent to 
which we rely on energy in all its  myriad forms, five years is far too short a 
time to accomplish any of the  unraveling or re-engineering it would take to 
back away from the precipice. At  this point we are committed to going over the 
edge into a major population  reduction.

However, this does not mean that we should adopt a  fatalistic stance and 
assume there is nothing to be done. In fact nothing could  be further from the 
truth. The need for action is more urgent now than ever.  Humanity is not going 
to go extinct. There are going to be massive and  ever-growing numbers of 
people in dire need for the foreseeable future. We need  to start now to put 
systems, structures and attitudes in place that will help  them cope with the 
difficulties, find happiness where it exists and thrive as  best they can. We need 
to develop new ways of seeing the world, new ways of  seeing each other, new 
values and ethics. We need to do this with the aim of  minimizing the misery 
and ensuring that as many healthy, happy people as  possible emerge from this 
long trauma with the skills and knowledge needed to  build the next cycle of 
civilization."
 
 
This was written in late 2007 make it 3.5 years now...
 
 
Best wishes
Joe
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