Hi KennyB,
I think you guessed correctly.
The problem with Pb-free soldering is that all your caps are jeopardized to a 
larger extent than with SnPb. With some you get away with it, with others 
just another little nudge causes failure. 
That large plated-through hole and connector stud are likely to have a 
somewhat higher CTE(x,y) than your PCB—voila.
My recommendation is to reduce all cap pads, and RRs as well, to half the cap 
widths to reduce the size of the solder fillet 'vise grips.' Those pad widths 
were needed for wave soldering and the fillets for inspection. 



Werner



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