Dear Kathy

Your November 2006 editorial in Printed Circuit Design and Manufacture
suggests that the ultimate fate of the global lead-free initiatives
will be decided by a contest of pro-activity between the pros and the
cons.  I actually agree with you.  But the balance between the two forces
is going to be influenced by deeper factors.  That balance of forces will
shift over time as new realities assert themselves. In the end it will be
the laws of physics that prevail. Humans are more amenable to change.

I do not think that there is anyone more sensitive than you to the many
process window narrowing issues that threaten lead-free solder
reliability.
Companies like Motorola, Microsoft, and Electronics know the perils well,
as do just about all the major multinationals who went along with the
AEA's capitulation to lead-free in 2002 after fighting the EU ban.  "It
would be a public relations disaster", the AEA was reported to have said,
to fight the issue in the WTO.  I believe that their position is typical
and motivates most of the "pro lead-free" camp. In other words they really
are not "pro lead- free"; they are self-perceived "realists". Their shift
to comply is understandable.  They remember well the polychlorinated
biphenyls in the Hudson, the asbestos disaster, Bhopal. That history, now
mostly ancient, would hamper any efforts by them to educate the public
about the anti-environmental, anti-reliability, horribly expensive
lead-free solder reality-- a non-solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

There are true proponents of l-f solder, mostly motivated by
self-interest.  Some probably cleaned up on tin, silver, and copper
futures.  In another era, some folks walked away from the tulip mania in
Holland with profits gained from all those greater fools.

We know that 63Sn37Pb and variations are not going to go away.  Products
and assemblies using leaded solder will continue to be a great control for
comparative surveillance of lead-free reliability.

I'll close with a question and a couple of facts:

1. Most of the companies using l-f solder, as in X-Box games and Razr cell
phones, are like silent sphinxes about it in their public relations.
Their channels know nothing.  Why?  Are they afraid of repercussions from
equipment failures?
2. Currently l-f solder has 55% global penetration, but in the North
American market it's only 20%.

Harvey Miller
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