This makes me think of some movie footage I saw at the in-law's over
Thanksgiving. There were "moving pictures" from the New York World's
Fair in 1964. It is funny to see what folks thought the future would
bring. I have to believe at the rate of technological advances we are
living through, whatever we think will happen in the future will not end
up be any thing like what really happens.
-----Original Message-----
From: TechNet [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Dennis Fritz
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2005 4:44 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [TN] Moore's law and PWBs
In a message dated 12/1/2005 3:02:32 PM Eastern Standard Time,
[log in to unmask] writes:
How will the boards be in the future?
Ingemar, your question can be answered by the roadmap activities by
IPC,
iNEMI, and other world organizations such as JISSO in Japan. All of
these
groups receive inputs from the ITRS (International Technology Roadmap
for
Semiconductors - the home of "Moore's Law) and other sources. From that
start, each
forecasts out about 10 years to what the best committee estimate is of
technology. Typically, there is a forecast for "state of the art" - the
computational example you cited, and for "revenue center of gravity" -
what the average
board fabrication shop will be capable of.
There is new information out there right now - iNEMI released their
roadmap
this past February, JISSO (only published in Japanese) came out in
June, and
the IPC Roadmap is just now being sent to Official Representatives of
member
companies. Contact me off line, and I can give you the ordering
information
for any of these documents.
In addition, both IPC Works had, and IPC Apex/Expo will have three hour
"free forums" of what is contained in the IPC (and I think the iNEMI)
roadmaps.
In case you think the Roadmap volunteers just lock themselves in a room
and
drink lots of Mountain Dew before forecasting, the IPC Roadmap for 2005
contains confirmation of the revenue center of gravity numbers on
line/space width,
drill diameter, controlled impedence capability, etc with the IPC's
PCQRR
(Printed circuit Capability, Quality, and Relative Reliability)
committee
sorting the information from about 140 worldwide board fabrication
shops
Occassionally, we do go out on a limb. For instance, our board fab
chapter
committee did forecast that the state of the art in chip mounting for
2015
would be some sort of "nano-velcro" to credit Motorola. At the recent
IPC
Miniaturization conference held at Motorola, Iwanna Turlick of Motorola
said that
our estimate of 10 years to implement that was too long. Can you
imagine
this forum without any of the lead-free conversations??? Just put your
silicon
on the substate, push down, and highly conductive carbon nanotubes keep
it in
place, conduct electricity, and remove heat. Wow, talk about a
breakthrough!!!!
Denny Fritz
MacDermid, Inc
Chapter Editor - Organic Interconnection Substate Fabrication
IPC Roadmap.
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