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December 2005

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Subject:
From:
"Stadem, Richard" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
TechNet E-Mail Forum <[log in to unmask]>, Stadem, Richard
Date:
Thu, 1 Dec 2005 15:00:56 -0600
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In my area there is a lot of discussion (and controversy) going on over
the use of "intelligent design" being taught in our schools along with
evolution. Sometimes I wonder if the "intelligent design" they are
speaking of and the design evolutions that the electronics industry and
other industries are seeing are not part of somebody's concurrent
engineering plan. 

-----Original Message-----
From: TechNet [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Kotecki, George
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2005 2:16 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [TN] Moore's law and PWBs

You may want to read Ray Kurzweil's book, "The Age of Spiritual
Machines".  It discusses the future of computing.  Its his take on the
future of computing development, where the top is, what limits must be
passed, an so on.  One word of caution though.  He does present an
almost "matrix" world we could evolve to so take what he discusses with
a grain of salt.  I enjoyed the book and occasionally refer back to it
in conversations such as this. 


Regards,
George Kotecki
Manager, MDE
  Northrop Grumman DSD-RMS
  600 Hicks, Rd RM M2100
  Rolling Meadows, IL 60008
*Phone: 847-259-9600 xt4276
*Fax: 847-818-5774
*pager: 847-694-4276
*e-mail: [log in to unmask] 



-----Original Message-----
From: TechNet [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Ingemar Hernefjord
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2005 2:00 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [TN] Moore's law and PWBs

How will the boards be in the future?
The chips have gone through a tremendous evolution. Intel's processor
clocks nearly 4 Gbit/s now, but Sony/Toshiba's playstation processor can
make 200 billion 'calculations' per sekund. That's not the end. The UK
company Clear Speed (I think they call themselves that) are
experimenting with chips with Several hundred processor cores. They
claim that in one or two years from now, their processor will be capable
of about 1,000 Gbit/s! But what about chip capacitors and copper lines
and vias and all other components on a board? Ceramic capacitors have
indeed become smaller and with a lot more pF in them. A 100 nF cap today
is several times less in size than it was some 10 year back. And you can
see tiny uH chips, LED chips, 6 A fuses just some square millimeters
wide. But vias and PTHs and conductors and multilayer structures have
not by far undergone same revolution. And we should not even talk about
Moore's law. Question is: is there a demand for further minimizing these
components? Or will the familiar PWB as we see it today be  superseded
by silicon (just an exampel, there are dozens of other materials)
substrates with integration of LCR in one and the same process? Will a
100 Watt DC power supply be a 1x1 cm 'board'
and a computer board less than your playcard? Will the enormous assembly
plants be just small units with 100 persons, supercomputers, and
automatic machines that produce electronics for a whole country on just
a few hundred meters? What will happen if, over a night, there is a
change from copper/ epoxy/drilling/plating/soldering/boards to
substrates with built-in nanotubes, optic conductors and all other
future stuff, and no need any more for the ordinary, now 50 year old
PWB? Will this happen and when?
We have been discussing this over a cup of tea or coffee (not american
coffee) but it always ends in a shrug and 'well, well, that day, that
headache'. Just wondering if anyone plans for the DAY, or if we all just
put the head in the..the..waste bin.

If we plan to conquer other planets and build civilisation there, logic
gives that we must have and will see quite a new generation of
'boards'..

Ingemar Hernefjord
Ericsson Microwave Systems

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