A couple problems with this whole scenario of "innovation" as our savior.
Most "innovators" started as "sub-innovators", learning their trade over the
course of time as "junior engineer" or "programmer" or "junior designer".
As _these_ jobs go offshore, there is going to be less innovation from the
US because there will be less than "critical mass" to gather idea from, and
less training ground to seed ideas into. Innovation (propaganda to the
contrary) is not one person, it's all the people that build ideas into
reality. It is a team, and the only thing "team" means to most americans
any more is atheletics. We are not trained to be teams.
The result is going to be less employment, less money to buy the goodies
here, less money to send kids to college, less people to get the jobs we
aren't going to have any more. An when people realize it, there is, indeed,
going to be blood in the street. All this is happening, coincidentally, at
the same time oil reserves are peaking.
Another problem is the fallicy that as the "working stiff" kinds of jobs
move overseas we are magically going to retrain factory workers to be
"innovators". This is why the "rust belt" is such in such a boom now, all
those factory workers that lost their jobs to the import cars and steel 30
years ago are making millions now, aren't they. The truth of the matter is
that a small proportion of the total population is retrainable for the
"global economy". A large percentage of the US is going to be jobless for
the rest of their lives. Period. Was it Pounelle that coined the term
"negative income tax" years ago in his books about what the US would turn
into in the future, one person with a job supporting 4 or five without?
Well, the future is getting closer, folks.
Aw, heck. It's too late anyways. What, me worry..... <:o)
-----Original Message-----
From: DesignerCouncil
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: 9/14/2004 10:31 AM
Subject: Re: [DC] [NTC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
Seems to me that a lot of people are losing sight of the big picture.
America, hotbed of innovation for many years past, has expanded its
markets by selling product globally. In fact, many countries benefit
from American technology, and as a result many American companies
benefit from the increased sales.
The flip side of that coin is that non-American companies need to pay
for those products, and how do they do that? They do it by selling their
products into America wherever they are competitive, and that earns them
the money they need to purchase American products. Hence we have shoes,
sneakers, clothing etc etc etc sold in America for considerably less
than they can be manufactured here.
The reason they are much cheaper is that the standard of living in
America dictates that wages are relatively much higher and labor
intensive products are not competitive. (Let's not get into sweatshops
and environmental degradation here - that is not the widespread problem
we have been led to believe).
There are a couple of ways America can resolve this "problem". The first
is to close the borders and become self-sufficient and self-sustaining,
neither buying or selling products globally. Result? Blood in the
streets. The cost of living would rise substantially, and when the
American consumer and his wife suddenly have to pay three or four times
more for shoes, clothes, toys, electronics etc etc etc there would be
riots in the streets. At the same time American markets would shrink,
many jobs are lost, and there's more riots. Seems to me you can't close
the stable door after the consumer horse has escaped - the American
public won't stand for it.
The alternative is to accept the global economy, accept that some
'things' might be made more cheaply overseas, accept the consumer
benefits from cheaper goods, and bask in the greater economic activity
that comes from American goods reaching much bigger markets and
benefiting many Americans at home.
It seems to me that we are living in a transition phase, and the
adjustment is painful. The way to survive in this new global economy is
to keep innovating to offer novel products to a global market in a way
that no one else can do, and to continue with innovation as all the
'me-too' countries play catch up. My belief is that the US has not been
able to continue this one-step-ahead cycle because real innovation is no
longer core to the US's economic road map, except in the military. The
short term emphasis on quarter-by-quarter performance in the stock
market has CEOs frantically chasing every short term advantage they can
get. Part of that is doing what they do but more cheaply overseas, even
training people in core technologies to shave costs wherever possible.
So of course the entrepreneurs overseas (and there are very many able
and willing and smart people over 'there') who are going to see
advantage in what they have learned and do it for themselves, just like
employees in US companies know they can do a better job more cheaply
than where they're working. Some very big US companies started like this
across a lunch table.
You can't villify 'foreigners' just because they have adopted 'The
American Way'.
The solution? Joe Public recognising the long term danger of complacency
and screaming loud and long not for their own, and hence short term
interests, but for the longer term interests of their children and their
grandchildren. The US needs much more emphasis on real education,
starting from infants, so that the innovation process in one and two
generation's time is assured. It needs a political system that accepts
some short term loss for long term gain, and that political system will
only rise if Joe and Jane Public demand it.
I can't see that happening any time soon. We are are all too involved in
our own short term interests to accept short term pain for our
children's long term gain.
Andy K.
Sychip Inc
Office (972) 202 8852
-----Original Message-----
From: DesignerCouncil [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of
Brooks,Bill
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 11:53 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [DC] [NTC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
Hi Terry,
Mexico... They have been trying to manufacture in Mexico for years...
with
very mixed results... I remember when I was at ACDC Electronics they had
a
'Mequilladora' in Tijuana. They lost a whole truck load of transformers.
Weeks later the police found the truck in the desert abandoned... They
figured that the illegals had hijacked the truck to get across the
border
and dumped the truck when they got to where they were headed. Mexico is
a
very corrupt place.
China scares me more than Mexico. Our companies are falling all over
themselves to get into China... I think they are at great risk. But we
shall
see.
Bill Brooks
PCB Design Engineer , C.I.D., C.I.I.
Tel: (760)597-1500 Ext 3772 Fax: (760)597-1510
http://pcbwizards.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Terry Kozlyk [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 8:06 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [DC] [NTC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
It is happening....slowly perhaps....but it is happening...
Wait till Mexico gets its standards up-to-speed.....
How about China ??? Now there is mass volume of people, market & demand
there also....
TDK
-----Original Message-----
From: Louis Dallara [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 7:54 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [DC] [NTC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
Bill;
So do we educated the world to design are electronics and give them our
intellectual property so they can have all are engineering jobs along
with the manufacture base just because they have a lower standard of
living and will work cheaper????
Inquiring minds want to know??
Lou Dallara
-----Original Message-----
From: DesignerCouncil [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of
Roger Stoops
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2004 9:37 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [DC] [NTC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
Estonia is one of the Baltic countries, formerly of the USSR, bordered
with Russia to the east and Latvia to the south, Finland to the north
across Gulf of Finland. Current temp is 68deg F with partly cloudy
skies as of 2:10 their time...hmmmm, nice golfing weather...
http://www.abacci.com/atlas/geography.asp?countryID=191
-----Original Message-----
From: DesignerCouncil [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of
Brooks,Bill
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2004 5:56 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [DC] Education...a little off topic but valid..
Do I detect a slight hint of sarcasm Indrek? :) (BTW, Where is
Estonia?)
"Hmmm, no educating those peasants now... wouldn't want to give them any
IDEAS in their little 'mutton heads'..." says the noble to the castle
guard...
Sounds like England during the reign of King George... Didn't our
American ancestors leave there because of the disparity of those who
have verses those to have not... I think even feeding your family by
hunting deer in the local forest was a crime... All things belonged to
the King... especially access to knowledge.
America's best defense is an educated populace, armed with knowledge and
the means to protect its free dissemination to all citizens. Lord help
the fool that invades this ARMED, and EDUCATED country...
(That's why when they reduce access to education, they want to take all
your weapons away... can you imagine an ARMED 'UNEDUCATED' nation? I'm
sure it makes the elite very nervous...)
Of course those that would have power over us would prefer to do it
slyly without our knowledge... its less likely we would know who to
retaliate against when they stole our freedoms...
But that's really not a fundamentally PCB related subject... just one I
feel passionate about as well. I believe that educational materials need
to be made available to the people of this country at very reasonable
cost and ease of access... it's a source of strength to our country and
our friends. And you may notice that Designers Council members get
discounts on educational materials and events through their
membership... that's another good thing...
'Evil reigns when good men do nothing...' - Edmund Burke (1729-1797)
Bill Brooks
PCB Design Engineer , C.I.D., C.I.I.
Tel: (760)597-1500 Ext 3772 Fax: (760)597-1510 http://pcbwizards.com
-----Original Message-----
From: Indrek Rebane [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Saturday, September 11, 2004 3:10 AM
To: (Designers Council Forum); Brooks,Bill
Subject: [OT]Re: [DC] Lead free
Almost as bad idea as giving free (governmentally funded) education to
people. Including higher education. What would they think? Poor people
may get educated! People would not quit study towards their physics
degrees just because they have no money, thou they are better then
anyone else in the area. What a ridiculous idea! What will country do
with it's people when they are not attached to 6 hours of soap operas on
TV every day anymore? Whole punch of psychiatrists would also go bust.
Can't let that happen to our economy.
Indrek
--
Indrek Rebane | Borthwick-Pignon
Electronics Engineer | Tartu Science Park
Phone: (+372) 7 302 641 | Riia 185, 51014 Tartu
Fax: (+372) 7 383 041 | Estonia
[log in to unmask] | www.bps.co.ee
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