Why change what's been working?
I think back to the late 1950's when we say memory cabinets that had boards
in them and it took 100 cubic feet to house 1 Kilobits of memory; then in
the 60's when it took about 2 cubic feet to house the same; then into the
70's when it took about 1/2 cubic inch; into the 80's where it took about
1/100 of acubic inch , til today where it is measured in the hundreds of
microns. Yet, the same schematic used in 1959 by An Wang is still
fundamentally the same one used today, with the torroid being replaced by
silicon transitors. I guess where this leads me is to suggest that we will
always have a need for the printed circuit board. I would agree with Ed
Valentine in his assessment that we will no doubt hit walls and find ways to
go around them. That has been our collective heritage, and separtes us from
most other technilogical societies in the world. It is a pardigm not likley
to change over a cultural generation, let alone 10 years.
SMT, as "Surface" mount may evolve to something where we embed certain
passive components into the laminate structure that becomes our printed
circuit board fab. But the silicon aspect will always be with us until
someone devises some material that can accept integrated circuits and is
significantly cheaper in most respects than silicon. FR-4 and the like are
not likely to do this; today's ceramics certainly can't, as well as the
newer generations of cer-met-cer's on the horizon.
The only possible elimination of SMT I could see in the next 10 years would
be one of two:
- HP recently had success in its molecular transitor- this would
allow for ultra-microminaturization and possible cheapness to the extent
that we could now embed circuits within the board fab and reduce any costs
in bad devices
or
- Ball Semiconductors is developing spherical chips (op amps and
like complexity- <100 transistors); these similarly would be produced at
such low costs that the bulk of the cost would go the FR4.
Anyway, enow for now...
Bill Davis, Ph.D.
Principal and Vice President,
IP Managers
(408) 325-7868/321-4681
-----Original Message-----
From: [log in to unmask] [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Friday, July 30, 1999 10:02 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [TN] What's the future?
Loan -
I believe the future of SMT and electronics will continue to generally be as
it has been. That is, products will get smaller, thinner, faster, and
lighter with more Bells & Whistles. Instead of electronics assembly getting
easier as you alluded to with one ASIC on a board, I see many other areas
will it will continue to get more complex for the foreseeable future (10+
years). We haven't hit any stone walls yet, and when we do, we will just go
around them. We will create new paths where there are none now, and we will
leave a trail behind us for others to follow.
Ed Valentine
ProTronics, Inc.
861 Old Knight Road
Knightdale, NC 27545
http://www.protronics-inc.com
Ph. 919-217-0007, Fx 919-217-0050
----- Original Message -----
From: Tempea, Ioan <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Friday, July 30, 1999 12:12 PM
Subject: [TN] What's the future?
> Technos,
>
> since everybody is happy and has time to check spelling, I'm going to ask
> your oppinion on something totally non-technical.
>
> Many of you have more years in this industry than my age, so you saw it
> grow. How do you see the future of SMT? Will it continue to be a booming
> business, or, five years from now the assemblies will be one ASIC placed
on
> a 1"x1" board and that's it, no more discrete components, no more wave
> soldering, no rework, etc.
>
> Shall I return to good old lathes and milling machines, or I'll be able to
> feed my children out of electronic manufacturing, many years from now?
>
> Actually my company is in shut down for two weeks and that's why I waste
my
> time with stupid questions (sorry, but any oppinion is welcomed).
>
> Thanks, Ioan
>
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