I thought I should share something that I feel regarding the lead free
issue.

No wonder we had a great conference at Minneapolis. I do agree with the
fact that the research for the lead free was started long back for high
temperature military and automotive applications. However It is also
obvious that the lead free issue became popular due to  the legislative ban
proposal of lead use in electronics in Europe. But the way the market is
catching up we all agree to the fact that it's no more an environmental
issue now. I was amazed to see so many environmentalists at the IPC works
99. Somewhat it seems to me that we have to look this whole issue in a
different aspect. It 's not only the electronics industry but we have to
see the changing trend in the whole world.

Health hazard and lead exposure:

Enough has been talked about this issue and although there are certain
issues regarding leaching and work exposure it is concluded that the lead
use in electronics is very low compared to the other sectors.  What would
be more hazardous place to work than a Nuclear reactor ? A simple mistake
could cost hundred of lives. We can't ban these then what's there to talk
about lead.
The point I want to stress here is that its not the environmental concern
but it is the new strategy of marketing your product with environmental
friendly label. This is another way of increasing your market share.  It
has to be different from other products even though it is of the same kind.

Historical market trend:

Few decades back it was the era of OEMs where every part of the product
used to be manufactured at the same company.  Due course it changed and a
time came which lead to the mass production of same products. The OEMs had
to take care of too many things and they started growing bigger and bigger.
It finally lead to contract manufacturing and outsourcing many of your
products.  This seemed to more profitable and you had an option of
 controlling the quality too by making these contract manufacturing unit as
your
business partners.

In all these years reliability of your product was very important and
average life of a product had to be high. But these issues are changing and
especially in the consumer electronics the average life has been decreasing
very rapidly. Consumer doesn't use the same product for a long time. The
concern for the landfill sites is nothing but due to the basic reason of
 shorter average life of consumer electronics.

Present market trend:

Present market trend is more affected by consumer awareness. A decade ago
consumers were happy with the new designs and products. But now its
changing and consumer knows much about the products. In order to keep the
same market share lot of companies
bring marketing and manufacturing together and employ voice of customer
issues such as QFD (Quality function deployment ) studies even before they
start designing a new product.
The consumer wants some flexibility in the design at the same price. He
wants the same product but with his own options. Automotive manufacturers
are already working on BUILD YOUR OWN CAR project which allows a customer
to change some of the interior and exterior designs in the existing models
through the internet. This means the equipment has to be more flexible to
take up certain changes in the existing model,  no extra set up time . All
this has to be incorporated in the same cost. Whoever comes out first will
see an increase in the market share.

The recent trend has been ability to reach individual customer or group and
deliver them the products the way they want it. It's more like an idea of
incorporating mass and batch  production both in the same unit.

Electronics industry is also affected by the same trend. Right now it does
seem to be an environmental issue but eventually it will be something
different.

World market scenario:

North America:
Lead use in electronics is not a major issue since there  is no legislative
ban and it will see both leaded and non leaded products in future years.
Consumers will have an option to buy lead or lead free electronics
products.

Europe:
If the proposal goes through then it will be  a lead free market.

Japan:
 No immediate ban  but  encouragement for lead free products. The average
life of a consumer electronics product is very low and concerns are raised
for landfills.

Rest of Asia :
lead is not a big issue right now. Since many countries still use lead in
the gasoline it's a long way before they are aware of the lead issues in
electronics. For at least a decade we will keep selling lead based
electronics products. Reliability is an important issue here since
electronics product is still a luxury item for a middle class consumer and
the average life of a product is expected to be  very high. Since we have a
history of documented reliability for lead based electronics this will
remain a lead based electronics market.

Similar scenario can be seen in the other parts of the world. It's more
driven by the region and type of consumer.

Depending upon the market share and where  you sell your product, industry
will be affected by this scenario.  Every industry will see a mixed lots of
order. For an order of 100 pieces there could be half lead based and half
lead free. No one will give up the lead based reliable process when you can
still sell it in many parts of the world.
Most affected by this scenario will be the contract manufactures since they
are customer driven and depending upon the customer demand they will have
to act quickly and  be able to deliver lead free products.



How does electronics industry catch up:

There is a need to develop a capability to employ different processes in
the existing plant layout. The equipment have to be more flexible and
should be able to take wide variations in the process change.  There will
be more changes in the coming years. Who knows few years down the road it
could be  solder free electronics where you don't need solder at all.

The present market trend will force every sector to market their product
depending upon the region and consumer awareness. The time is gone where we
made millions by producing the same product everyday.  Now its changing and
we will have to be able to catch up with the changing scenario. The economy
is globalized. Most companies market their products around the world. It's
a time for a mixed market scenario.

With in lead free alloy we might use different alloys for different
products.  For some products SnBi could be better and for some SnAgCu could
be much better.
Now the question remains how we optimize our equipment to incorporate all
of these.
There could be overhead expenses in the purchase of more flexible equipment
depending the type of industry. At the IPC works 99 we  could see how
difficult it is to standardize the lead free issues.

As far as I feel there will never be a complete lead free market. We will
have to learn to produce products using both.  Process engineers will have
to work harder. Components will be available both with lead and without
lead. Lead free electronics will open another door where it will be used
for high temperature applications. Lot of things will be modified but
whatever happens we will continue selling lead based products.
The industry has to be prepared to incorporate any upcoming changes due to
materials, components and processes.

I belong to academics and do not know much about the industry issues but at
the conference I did notice the awareness. Contract manufacturing companies
already have customers asking for lead free capability. It's  already felt
that we have to act very quick.

In any case there seems to be a need for a detail market study. We should
identify the demand for lead free and be prepared before it's too late.


Hemant Belbase
Graduate Student
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
University of Massachusetts, Lowell.
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