Mary,

I have taken a quick look at the site and although it looks good on
paper the math does not work.
To reduce the USA's oil consumption to 5 million barrels of oil a day
would require replacing virtually all vehicles with some form of
alternative fuel.

There are over 200,000,000 vehicles in this country. A DOE study
released Feb. 8th stated that replacing half of these vehicles would
cost over a trillion dollars (if they were even available)!

Biofuels are a net energy loser as well as hydrogen (availablity on this
large of scale is also very very doubtful). The concept of internal
combustion engines surviving the coming oil crisis (except for trains
and very large local transports) is worse than silly it is also a
dangerous waste of resources, time and money.

The fact that this process is "backed" by the DOD and by default major
manufacturers of
internal combustion demonstrates their bias.

Mary please visit the following web site with a calculator in hand:
http://www.peakoil.net
http:www.peakoil.com <http:wwwpeakoil.com>
http://www.eclipsenow.org
http://www.endofsuburbia.com

David A. Douthit
Manager
LoCan LLC


Mary Betsch wrote:

>I must take this opportunity to share some very insightful readings from
> Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute who recently spoke at the
>State of the Rockies Conference on "Winning the Oil Endgame."  You can
>read about his innovations to eliminate/minimize the US dependence on
>oil at www.oilendgame.com through manufacturing and government.  The
>entire book is available online or you can read the Executive Summary .
>. . quite a fascinating read!
>
>Enjoy!
>
>
>
>Mary Betsch, CHMM
>EH&S Manager
>Sanmina-SCI Corporation Plant 432
>702 Bandley Drive
>Fountain, CO  80817
>[log in to unmask]
>Phone:  719.382.2446
>Cell:  719.491.9825
>Fax:  719.382.2494
>
>
>
>
>>>>[log in to unmask] 4/8/2005 2:37:36 AM >>>
>>>>
>>>>
>David,
>
>Why do you think that I forecast that oil prices may rise to $100/bbl
>by
>the end of 2005, over a year ago? I see that oil futures are well into
>the upper 50s, and that means that those who buy futures today are
>hoping to make a good profit when they sell in 6 months, including
>accrued interests. So this means the purchasers expect the price to be
>significantly higher that the current price - and they have factored
>in
>potential losses in case of their crystal ball making a mistake. So,
>this autumn, there is a probability of upper $60s, and perhaps my gut
>feeling of over a year ago of $100/bbl won't be far wrong by when the
>cold sets in.
>
>$100/bbl will mean $3.50/USGal at the pump or more. Want to trade in
>your SUV for a Prius? Do it now, before the market is flooded with
>second-hand gas-guzzlers!
>
>Brian
>
>David Douthit wrote:
>
>
>>Brian,
>>
>>The Federal Govenment is now forcasting an oil shortage the end of
>>
>>
>this
>
>
>>year! (see below)
>>
>>David A. Douthit
>>
>>===========================
>>
>>
>>
>>UPDATE: EIA Raises Forecasts For China, World Oil Demand
>>
>>(Updates to add increase to 1Q 2006 oil demand.)
>>
>>NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The federal Energy Information Administration
>>
>>
>on
>
>
>>Thursday again raised its forecasts for Chinese oil demand, changes
>>
>>
>that
>
>
>>boosted the outlook for world oil consumption as a whole.
>>
>>The upward revisions in the EIA's monthly oil-market outlook
>>
>>
>reinforce
>
>
>>how demand - already so strong that it has pushed producers and
>>
>>
>refiners
>
>
>>to the limits of their capacity - continues to grow robustly despite
>>soaring prices.
>>
>>Acknowledging the pressure demand is putting on markets, the EIA,
>>
>>
>the
>
>
>>statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, now sees U.S.
>>
>>
>benchmark
>
>
>>oil prices holding above $50 a barrel through 2006.
>>
>>"Several factors have contributed to the recent high crude oil
>>
>>
>prices
>
>
>>and are likely to keep prices at or near present highs," the EIA
>>
>>
>wrote.
>
>
>>"First, worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain
>>
>>
>robust,
>
>
>>despite high oil prices."
>>
>>While Chinese oil demand - like overall world consumption - isn't
>>expected to grow as fast as it did in 2004, it is seen growing
>>
>>
>faster
>
>
>>than expected early this year. The EIA revised its forecasts for
>>
>>
>Chinese
>
>
>>oil demand in the second and fourth quarters up by 100,000 barrels a
>>
>>
>day
>
>
>>in each case, to 7.4 million and 7.7 million barrels a day,
>>
>>
>respectively.
>
>
>>The agency left its outlook for full-year Chinese demand and demand
>>growth unchanged.
>>
>>In line with those increases, the EIA boosted its forecasts for
>>
>>
>second
>
>
>>and third quarter world oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day, to 83.1
>>million and 84.6 million barrels a day, respectively.
>>
>>The agency raised its forecast for demand in the fourth quarter by
>>200,000 barrels a day, to 86.8 million barrels a day. Demand in that
>>quarter was already expected to test producers' ability to pump more
>>oil. The new forecast leaves fourth quarter demand 700,000 barrels a
>>
>>
>day
>
>
>>over projected supply.
>>
>>And the stress won't end this year. The EIA also raised its forecast
>>
>>
>for
>
>
>>first quarter 2006 oil demand by 300,000 barrels a day, to 86.9
>>
>>
>million
>
>
>>barrels a day, slightly pulling up the outlook for demand growth that
>>
>>
>year.
>
>
>>
>>
>>"Projections for 2005 and 2006 call for worldwide growth averaging
>>
>>
>2.2
>
>
>>million barrels per day, or 2.6 percent, per year, down from the
>>3.4-percent growth in 2004," the EIA said.
>>
>>Weaker than expected demand for gasoline in the U.S. this summer was
>>
>>
>the
>
>
>>exception to the EIA's upward revision. The EIA now sees gasoline
>>
>>
>demand
>
>
>>of 9.34 million barrels a day in the third quarter, 80,000 barrels a
>>
>>
>day
>
>
>>below its previous forecast. The change pulled the forecast for
>>
>>
>overall
>
>
>>U.S. oil demand in the quarter down by 30,000 barrels a day, to
>>
>>
>20.95
>
>
>>million barrels a day.
>>
>>Nevertheless, growth in gasoline demand will be strong enough to
>>
>>
>push
>
>
>>prices to new records, with the EIA forecasting summer prices of
>>
>>
>$2.28 a
>
>
>>gallon on average from April to September, up 38 cents from last
>>
>>
>summer.
>
>
>>"Despite high prices, demand is expected to continue to rise due to
>>
>>
>the
>
>
>>increasing number of drivers and vehicles and increasing per-capita
>>vehicle miles traveled," the EIA said.
>>
>>-By Andrew Dowell, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4430; andrew.dowell@
>>dowjones.com
>>
>>DowJones Newswire
>>
>>
>>
>
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>
>