Just a quickie to say that the equation uses many tens of variables to
create the numbers and is VERY complex. The problem is that there are
many known factors that are approximated to have something workable. For
example, the oceans and some of the less inhabitated land is often
worked on a 100 km grid with just 11 slices in the Z axis. This is far
too coarse to take microclimates into account and you can just imagine
the difference if a Hadley cell boundary is measured with a 100 km
error, as the jet stream will be way out. Granted, this is weather, but
weather changes can influence climate changes, or be caused by them (hen
or egg?).
Brian
MA/NY DDave wrote:
> Hi Joe, Chuck, Brian,
>
> <Interesting notions. Some sage observed that if you can't express a concept
> in numbers you can't know all there is to know about it.>
>
> Right! I think it was Newton or at least someone in his life time span and
> Issac gets the credit.
>
> It would be fun to create or see the Global Warming equation. I don't even
> think it has that many elements in it for a first order approximation.
>
> <The bill eventually comes due and someone must ultimately pay. Sort of like
> the deficit spending that we see in government. The problem gets passed
> forward in time apparently in the hope that something magical (or maybe the
> presumption of something totally devastating) will happen that causes the
> ctrl-alt-del key sequence to be hit for a reboot.>
>
> deficit spending I understand; although the Japaneese Central Bank having
> 0% for a long time was a bit confusing. 3.5% long term GDP growth is one
> objective of USA monetary policy. The Chineese are in for a tumble someday
> since they are expanding too fast.
>
> The Global Warming Bill will be paid, yet most will not know it is being
> paid. It is just Too dam difficult for most humans to understand this stuff
> and the politicans get to have fun, and win votes, in the turmoil process.
>
> <Nature cannot loose the game, no matter what the outcome. A planet with
> life or without, nature will persist.>
>
> Like Brian, I am hopeful on that point. As we get closer to, or beyond the
> point in the equation that we need to take real action stuff will get done
> even by the politicans. Most of life has an operating temperature point
> with some organisms or plants being able to accomodate extremely wide
> ranges. Yet not all can accomodate wide ranges, or environments.
>
> As a political case in point is my own good old ugly running for president
> GOP "give them death" boy called Mitt the Romney, Governator, Celebrity of
> Mass. With a recent Big Dig ceiling collapse that could embarrass him, or
> that he can use to furthur his career, he all of a sudden knows about
> epoxy, bolts, cleaning of holes etc. The same thing will happen as Global
> Warming comes to a REAL, not an Al Gore, important point.
>
> Yet as the population expands, and industrialization expands with it we are
> in for a ride with an expanding numerator, and a diminishing demoninator.
> Even the Amazon Rain Forest is getting burned. Back when you and I were
> kids 2.5 Billion people were in the world and only about 200M in the USA,
> and China was striving for an agrarian culture.
>
> Yours in Engineering, Dave
> YiEngr, MA/NY DDave
>
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