Steve,
I have nothing against what you says that NASA says. Yes, there can be
sonme very severe positive feedback loops and some powerful negative
feedback loops as well. I agree that climate change is not 100%
man-made, I never said it was. I thought I had explained this in my web
page at http://www.cypenv.org/worldenv/files/climate_change.htm - the
three IPCC graphs (old) there show the role played by natural and
anthropogenic factors, showing that neither, alone, can account for the
observations but, combined, they do. These graphs have now been much
refined. If you look at the top graph in Fig. SPM-3 on p. 17 and Fig.
SPM-7 on p. 21 for the 20th c. (ignore the scenario predictions), you
will see that the modelling fit is better, especially for 1960 onwards.
If you compare the contents of your linked NASA article with the IPCC
2007 Summary, every point in it has been addressed in the latter, and
will be, in much more detail, with the full report next month. NASA and
ESA contribute a lot to the IPCC scientific data processing along with
hundreds of other organisations world-wide. I'm sorry but your arguments
with each iteration of posts seem to ignore what the IPCC have done or
are you just trying to be a devil's advocate? Yes, there are naysayers,
but there are still people who believe the earth is flat and is the
centre of the universe with the sun and everything else orbiting round it.
As for the non-substantiation of my first post today, surely you must
see that I made the effort to do just this in my second post?
Climate change is, indeed, a very complex subject involving at least 20
different scientific disciplines. I don't believe any single person can
know everything about it or even more than a mere fraction of the
knowledge that has to be synthesised together to produce the IPCC
report. This is why more than 1500 scientists were involved in the
study, research and reporting. In my case, I have a reasonably good but
very superficial knowledge of the overall process but please don't ask
me to go into such details as to, for example, the mathematical
modelling of the effects of space weather or the effects of submarine
fumaroles, because I simply have not the foggiest idea. Nevertheless,
from my studies of the atmosphere (it may interest you to know I even
have my own weather station), I have a "very likely" confidence that man
is contributing largely to climate change, mainly because of his use of
fossil fuels. As a result, I put my money (and remember I'm a Scotsman!)
where my mouth is by doing everything I reasonably can to reduce my
carbon footprint. This will not benefit me in any way, as I'm now 75 and
will long be sucking dandelions by the roots before any effect can be
felt, but it is an investment for my grandchildren and, I hope, their
future children and generations to come. If everyone did the same, then,
perhaps, the world will be a better place to live in before 2100.
Please have a look round my website http://www.cypenv.org/worldenv/ - it
contains a series of >20 essays on environmental and energy matters,
written for people like yourself, without vast detail but with a
sufficient background package and intelligence to understand my points.
Brian
Steve Gregory wrote:
> Brian,
>
> I have read your emails, and have also read your links. One thing stands
> out in all your responses; you are trying as hard as you can to convince
> me that anyone who has a different point of view than you MUST be funded
> by the oil companies. But then you try and distance yourself from that
> statement by giving the disclaimer; "Now, I agree that nothing I have
> mentioned in this post has been substantiated...". I find that a little
> strange.
>
> I will admit, the more I try to learn, the less I know. But I am
> starting to realize that there is more to global warming than it just
> being man-made. Granted, man may be contributing to it and we need to
> consider what we are doing that may contribute to it , but I am learning
> that it is not all just us.
>
> I don't think NASA is funded by Petroleum companies (or maybe they are?)
>
> http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
>
> Below are a few paragraphs from the above link:
>
> If the high latitudes warm, and sea ice extent declines, thawing Arctic
> soils may release significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane now
> trapped in permafrost, and slightly warmer ocean water could release
> frozen natural gases in the sea floor, all of which act as greenhouse
> gases in the atmosphere, said David Rind, a senior researcher at NASA's
> Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York. "These feedbacks are
> complex and we are working to understand them," he added.
>
> Less ice means more open water. More open water means greater absorption
> of solar energy. More absorption of solar energy means increased rates
> of warming in the ocean, which naturally tends to yield faster rates of
> ice loss.
>
> THE GLOBAL ROLE OF THE POLAR CAPS
>
> The polar caps not only hold much of the planet's total fresh water, but
> also play an important role in regulating the Earth's temperature. The
> relevant characteristic is called albedo. It's a measure of how much
> radiation, or light, is reflected from a body. Similar to how a white
> shirt helps keep a person cooler in the summer than a black shirt, the
> vast stretches of polar ice covering much of the planet's top and bottom
> reflect large amounts of solar radiation falling on the planet's
> surface. Were the ice caps to appreciably recede, sunlight that
> otherwise would have been reflected back into space would get absorbed
> by the darker, denser mass of ocean and land beneath. As light is
> absorbed, the environment is heated, thus intensifying a feedback loop:
> a warmer planet yields more ice melting thus an even warmer planet.
>
> Anyways, enough of this. In retrospect it seems that this was a bad
> thread to start. The only real dialog that is going on is between me and
> you, with you trying to convince me that any information other than what
> you and the IPCC consensus put out is some evil plot by the petroleum
> companies to confuse the world.
>
> I probably should have not brought the subject up. Gordon Davy was
> right...
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Brian Ellis [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2007 3:51 AM
> To: Environmental Issues; Steve Gregory
> Subject: Re: [EN] FW: FW: [EN] Global Warming, another point of view...
>
> Steve
>
> By coincidence, I received yesterday a copy of Al Gore's An Inconvenient
> Truth. I watched it last night (first time I had seen it). Let me say
> that I'm far from being a Gore fan and the film had errors and
> irrelevancies in it, some unscientific and emotional (cf. his sister's
> death etc.). There were politicojournalistic exaggerations and
> politicoshowmanship in it. However, his basic message was, I believe 98%
> correct, if you took away the trimmings, without which it would not have
> been a success.
>
> There was one passage I didn't know about, albeit it is not
> substantiated. I found the following on a transcript:
> "Isn't there a disagreement among scientists about whether the problem
> is real or not? Actually, not really. There was a massive study of every
> scientific peer reviewed article written on global warming in the last
> ten years. They took a big sample of 10 percent, 928 articles. And you
> know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus
> that we're causing global warming and that is a serious problem out of
> the 928: Zero. The misconception that there is disagreement about the
> science has been deliberately created by a relatively small number of
> people. One of their internal memos leaked and here is what it said
> according to the press. Their objective is to reposition global warming
> as a theory rather than fact. This has happened before. after the
> Surgeon General's report. One of their memos leaked 4 years ago. They
> said, "Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of creating a
> controversy in the public's mind." But have they succeeded? You'll
> remember that there were 928 peer reviewed articles. Zero percent
> disagreed with the consensus. There was another study of all the
> articles in the popular press. Over the last fourteen years they listed
> a sample of 636. More than half of them said, "Well, we are not sure. It
> could be a problem, may not be a problem." So no wonder people are
> confused."
> He went on about an EPA memo trafficked by the White House Presidential
> environment policy chief. The "modifications", written by him, a
> non-scientist hired from the American Petroleum Institute refuted the
> scientific data, but this was leaked. "So this fellow resigned a few
> days later. The day after he resigned he went to work for Exxon-Mobil."
>
> So you see where I come from, when I believe that the petroleum
> companies are responible for much of the disinformation.
>
> Now, I agree that nothing I have mentioned in this post has been
> substantiated but, if it is fact, it should be pretty convincing.
>
> Brian
>
> Steve Gregory wrote:
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>>
>> From: Ross McKitrick [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2007 9:20 AM
>> To: Steve Gregory
>> Subject: Re: FW: [EN] Global Warming, another point of view...
>>
>>
>> Dear Steve
>>
>> Thank you for your note. The Fraser Institute did not receive any
>> money from any firms, certainly not Exxon or any others listed by Mr
>> Ellis, for the ISPM. (As for that, what people don't understand is
>> that all the climate policy proposals before the US government right
>> now will be a financial boon to major fossil energy producers if
>> passed. Cap and trade as configured in those proposals is simply a
>> legalized cartel with the scarcity rents (in this case emission
>> permits) handed to the incumbent firms. Energy firms are not out there
>
>> fighting against climate policy, they are lobbying for cap and trade).
>
>> In any case, the Fraser Institute did not seek or get any funding from
>
>> any firms--energy or otherwise--for this project.
>>
>> The ISPM is not, as he suggests, a summary of the IPCC Summary for
>> Policymakers. It is a summary of the Second Order Draft of the full
>> IPCC Working Group I report as it stood in June 2006, at the close of
>> scientific review. We used this as the best estimate of the final
>> wording of the full IPCC report, which is due out in early May. We
>> explain this in the ISPM.
>>
>> We also explain that the statement of Overall Conclusions represents
>> the views of the writing team. Judgments about whether climate changes
>
>> are good or bad are not mere emotion. The IPCC report devotes many
>> pages to discussions of things like storms, extreme weather,
>> precipitation, heat waves, sea levels, etc, because these are the
>> things people worry about in connection with climate change. Ambiguity
>
>> about trends in these things implies ambiguity about whether potential
>
>> problems or benefits will arise.
>>
>> The "90%" probability statement was arrived at by a vote among
>> bureaucrats at a meeting in Paris. I would not put much emphasis on
>> the specific number: different studies, different methods and
>> different assumptions imply very different numbers. The IPCC relies
>> heavily on a single model-based methodology. The discussion of this is
>
>> in the detection and attribution chapter in the IPCC report, which we
>> summarize in detail in the ISPM.
>>
>> The kinds of policies put forward to address CO2 emissions are
>> different from those that address air pollution, and to some extent
> are rivals.
>> This is especially true in 3rd World settings, where the main health
>> threat is indoor air pollution from burning wood and dung in open
>> indoor fires. The first step to improving air pollution for most of
>> the poor people in the world is creating an electricity grid with
>> fossil-generated power. I have a short magazine article about this at:
>> http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/particles.pdf. So the
>> decision about climate policy can't be subsumed under general air
>> pollution policy. Choices do have to be made. One of the main
>> motivations behind the ISPM is to get interested people to read the
>> full IPCC report itself, not merely the SPM published in Paris in
>> February. The more people grapple with the details, in all their
>> complexity, the more likely we will be in a position to make sound
> policy choices.
>> Yours truly,
>>
>>
>> Dr. Ross McKitrick
>> - Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies
>> - Department of Economics
>> - University of Guelph
>> - 519-824-4120 x52532
>> - http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/ross.html
>>
>>
>>
>> Steve Gregory wrote:
>>
>> Dear Doctor McKitrick,
>>
>> First I would like to introduce myself, my name is Steve Gregory
> and
>> I
>> am a Production Engineer for an electronics comapany in Tulsa,
>> Oklahoma
>> called OAI Electronics.
>>
>> I belong to a email forum that is hosted by the IPC (Institute
> for
>> Printed Circuits) called Environet, which discusses
> environmental
>> issues
>> as they relate to our industry. We occasionally get into other
>> environmental topics as well, as you can read in the exchange
> below.
>>
>> I was wondering if you could comment on Brian Ellis's reply.
>>
>> Kind regards,
>>
>> Steve Gregory
>> Production Engineer
>> OAI Electronics
>> 6960 East 12th Street
>> Tulsa, Oklahoma 74112
>>
>> (918) 836-9077
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Brian Ellis [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2007 6:10 AM
>> To: Environmental Issues; Steve Gregory
>> Subject: Re: [EN] Global Warming, another point of view...
>>
>> Firstly, let me quote the last sentence of the ES:
>> "Consequently, there will remain an unavoidable element of
>> uncertainty
>> as to the extent that humans are contributing to future climate
>> change,
>> and indeed whether or not such change is a good or bad thing."
>>
>> The IPCC report allows "an unavoidable element of uncertainty"
>> by
>> equating "very likely" to a 90 percentile probability.
>> Furthermore, it
>> quotes the ranges of different scenarios. It is therefore "very
>> likely"
>> than a part of the climate change, but not all of it, is
>> anthropogenic.
>> This is therefore not contradictory.
>>
>> Whether or not it is a good or bad thing depends on where you
> are. It
>> is
>> very personal and such a statement has NO place in what is
> purported
>> to
>> be a purely scientific assessment. When I see emotional
>> interpretations,
>> then credibility flies out the window.
>>
>> Then, when I see "Our work is financed by tax-deductible
>> contributions
>> from thousands of individuals, organizations, and foundations."
>> without
>> names, I think of Exxon-Mobil, Shell, BP, Total and their
> offshoots
>> etc.
>>
>> as being possible major contributors. Who bites the hand that
> feeds
>> them? Compare this with
>> http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2004399,00.html
>>
>> Yes, there are still many naysayers. I await, with impatience,
> the
>> full
>> IPCC scientific report which, hopefully, will be published next
>> month.
>> Until that comes out, we have no yardstick by which to measure
> the
>> veracity of the modelling (and neither have the writers of this
>> report,
>> which is based essentially on a 20 page summary, not the ~500
> pages
>> of
>> the full report).
>>
>> Finally, whether climate change is partially anthropogenic or
> not -
>> and
>> I believe it is from all the evidence I have seen - there is an
> even
>> more compelling reason to cut down on using fossil fuels: public
>
>> health.
>>
>> I'm sure I've touched on this before, but see here
>>
>>
> http://www.cypenv.org/worldenv/files/climate_change.htm#Public%20health
>> if you wish to know more.
>>
>> Brian
>>
>> Steve Gregory wrote:
>>
>>
>> I was given the link below to read, and it credibly
> dicusses another
>> point of view about "global warming". I cannot just
> dismiss this
>>
>>
>> paper.
>>
>>
>> It seems well supported by some prominent researchers
> and is
>> backed-up
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> by data. I just wonder what some of you think?
>>
>> -Steve Gregory-
>>
>> http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ISPM.pdf
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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