Brian,

I am very pessimistic about the USA because the majority of the 
population is quite spoiled.
As seen by the last election large numbers of citizens really do believe 
America is a "Super Power".
 These two items make a very dangerous combination.

Some where along the line oil producers will switch to EU dollars 
primarily because China's currency is "locked" to the US dollar. As the 
US dollar falls China will put pressure on the market by dropping this 
tie in. Then the US will officially become a "3rd World Debtor Nation" 
armed to the teeth!!

A very very bad situation indeed!!

David A. Douthit
Manager
LoCan LLC

Brian Ellis wrote:

> Yes, I agree, it could get fugly because of energy costs and it will 
> be worse in the USA than in Europe, where we have a buffer of the $-€ 
> exchange rate (I metaphorically go on my knees every night to pray 
> that all major energies will remain priced in $). Notwithstanding, it 
> will still require some brave, new, politicians who will start 
> assuming that voters have more than self-interest at heart. I think, 
> if I were 50 years younger (with my current knowledge), I would start 
> a new worldwide political movement called "Honest Energy" :-p
>
> Brian
>
> David Douthit wrote:
>
>> Brian,
>>
>> I suppose I will need to take "Mandarin" lessons.
>>
>> I hope you are right about the "slow die off". There is still a major
>> problem with the up and comming recession/inflationary sprial. That is
>> where life can get very "ugly".
>>
>> David A. Douthit
>> Manager
>> LoCan LLC
>>
>> Brian Ellis wrote:
>>
>>> Brian doesn't! Although the basic premisses are possibly correct, I
>>> don't believe in the pessimistic conclusions drawn. Homo sapiens is too
>>> tenacious a species to permit a die-off, although I do forecast a slow
>>> population decline. We have the knowledge, means and technology to
>>> change from a carbon economy to an essentially non-carbon one but it
>>> needs commitment. If the money that the USA, the UK and others have
>>> pumped into Iraq (for what purpose?) over the last few years had been
>>> directed to this problem, so that we did not need Iraqi oil, we would
>>> already be half-way to making the transition. The problem is not one of
>>> technology, but of so-called democracy, because politicians are not good
>>> enough salesemen to buy enough votes in the next election, if they
>>> promote unpopular moves. This is where China has a big advantage over
>>> us. For example, they can build nuke power stations ad inf. and the
>>> population acclaims the government for foreseeing the need to provide
>>> abundant, low cost, electric power. Other than a few forward-looking
>>> countries, such as France and Finland, the West quakes in its boots
>>> because politicians fear the onslaught of the eco-politicians with their
>>> misinformation, disinformation and downright lies regarding carbon-free
>>> power generation. And when I see that some Western countries use less
>>> than 35% of the energy they import/produce, it is easy to see where to
>>> tackle the problem: start by eliminating half the wasted energy and you
>>> will cut GHG emissions by half and double the time interval to Peak Oil
>>> or other fossil fuels. Combine that with an aggressive
>>> renewables/nuclear/transport policy as I suggested in my post of 17 Feb,
>>>  and we shall not suffer from the effects of Peak Oil.
>>>
>>> Brian
>>>
>>> MA/NY DDave wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hi David, EnViroN,
>>>>
>>>> OK I found Olduvai, in the link you gave, yet you can elaborate if
>>>> you wish
>>>> to the EnViroN audience.
>>>>
>>>> YiEngr, MA/NY DDave
>>>>
>>>> P.S. Again I hope Brian approves of most of this web site's data
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>