Brian,

The fact that there are variables in the numbers indicates some "wiggle 
room" for the end results.
Your assessments are quite accurate. They are based on the concept of 
"present rate of consumption".

This is an achievable goal provided a massive education campaign and 
direct governmental intervention is done. Even the Chinese have had only 
mild success holding done the birth rate and they have (as well as 
India) no intention of maintaining their "present rate of consumption". 
Who will "force" these nations , as well as all others (the United 
States included!), to stop growing/expanding their economies.

Doubling the price of oil will have a major impact on the economic 
"health" of many powerful nations.
This will be a critical point in our future. I believe the current 
Administration in Washington D.C. has taken the position of going to war 
for the remaining oil supplies (driven by companies such as Exxon/Mobile).
This may lead to very dangerous and gloomy results.

The "present rate of consumption" is the key and the United States of 
America has rejected the
Kyoto Protocol. The rising gas prices will "remove" the SUV problem and 
hopefully get the USA back to the treaty and not to war. (BTW China and 
India are not required to reduce their immissions under Kyoto and will 
continue expanding energy usage at an estamated 2% to 4% per year).

David A. Douthit
Manager
LoCan LLC.

Brian Ellis wrote:

> I've been following the Peak Oil (PO) arguments for about a year, now. 
> I'm sorry, but I do believe Climate Change (CC) is the #1 long-term 
> threat. The PO protagonists are mostly extremist-style activists who 
> prognosticate that the world will drop into total anarchy within the 
> next few years. OK, the facts, as I see it:
>
> 1. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough oil from known 
> and proven reserves for at least 50 years.
>
> 2. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough natural gas 
> from known and proven reserves for at least 100 years.
>
> 3. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough coal from known 
> and proven reserves for at least 300 years.
>
> 4. We are hitting a ceiling on the rate of extraction of oil within 
> the next 5 - 10 years because, as the easy-to-extract oil is depleted, 
> so we have to use more difficult-to-extract sources with lower flow 
> rates. The price of oil will increase, foreseeably to $100/bbl within 
> a couple of years or so.
>
> 5. The increased price will force swingeing increases in energy costs 
> which will make alternative sources more interesting.
>
> 6. If we burn all the reserves in 1, 2 and 3 above, bearing in mind 
> the residence time of CO2 is 300 years, the CO2 loading in the 
> atmosphere will increase from about 360 ppm today (from 280 ppm 150 
> years ago) to over 500 ppm, which is estimated to cause a global 
> temperature increase of 5° - 10°C. This is a dire threat to millions 
> of people, but it is impossible to predict the results.
>
> 7. As oil becomes more costly, there will be a tendency to swing 
> towards increased use of NG and coal. NG is less potent a CO2 
> generator, but it is estimated that 5% of all the gas that is 
> extracted is emitted through infrastructure leaks and venting etc. As 
> CH4 is ~35 times more powerful as a GHG than CO2, increased use will 
> be negative, not positive. Coal, is, of course, the most carbonaceous 
> of all fossil fuels (and the dirtiest).
>
> 8. I conclude, at this point, that we must reduce the use of ALL 
> fossil fuels ASAP. In this way, we shall also extend the longevity of 
> our known reserves, so that future generations may also profit from 
> them, and thus delay PO, PNG and PC. This will make the impact of 
> these phenomena less important.
>
> 9. As an aside, sequestration of GHGs is a pipe-dream (see 
> http://www.cypenv.org/Files/sequest.htm )
>
> 10. What can we use for fuels to replace fossil fuels without dropping 
> our style of life significantly, using proven technology?
>
> 11. Transport. Scrap all gas guzzlers, SUVs etc. by decree. Replace 
> them with cars like the Prius, which has a fraction of the 
> consumption, especially for urban use. Scrap all aircraft flights of 
> <1000 km. Use high-speed trains for passenger and goods transport. 
> Remove trucks from the road for all distances of >150 km in areas 
> served by high-speed trains.
>
> 12. Electricity. Use fixed renewables (e.g., wide-range tide, biomass 
> and trash combustion/gasification) to a maximum. Use variable 
> renewables (wind, solar, wave) up to 20% of peak demand (limit of grid 
> stability). Use nuclear for the rest. (We have the technology of 
> several centuries of uranium and thorium reserves.)
>
> 13. Housing. Make excellent insulation mandatory in all buildings to 
> reduce heating and aircon requirements. Domestic heating should be 
> uniquely electric from nuclear/renewable sources.
>
> 14. Energy conservation. This is an essential part of 21st c. life. 
> Tungsten lamps should be declared illegal etc. Anyone found using 
> extraordinary amounts of energy should be sanctioned.
>
> 15. Research. Government funding for all of the above should be of 
> primary importance.
>
> 16. Countries not conforming to the Kyoto Protocol (which entered into 
> force yesterday), its future amendments and other such international 
> measures should have severe trade sanctions imposed on them.
>
> Brian has spoken!
>
> David Douthit wrote:
>
>> Joe,
>>
>> I share your concern about global warming but I don't think
>> it's the number 1 environmental concern.
>>
>> It will become a moot point in about 30 years.
>> Go to http://eclipsenow.org
>>
>> David A. Douthit
>> Manager
>> LoCan LLC
>>
>> Joe Fjelstad wrote:
>>
>>> Forwarded for your consideration...
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> Have you heard about the Climate Stewardship Act? It's  a
>>>> bipartisan bill in Congress to undo global warming. And  your
>>>> help is needed to get it passed.
>>>>
>>>> Global warming is  the number 1 environmental issue we face. And
>>>> America -- the largest  global warming polluter -- needs to act.
>>>>
>>>> Environmental Defense is  working to get 1 million people to sign
>>>> the online Emissions Petition in  support of this bill. Hundreds
>>>> of thousands have already signed. Please,  do as I did and sign
>>>> the petition today. It's easy -- just use the link  below:
>>>>
>>>> http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/globalwarming_petition?rk=_paG6nF1EcJTW 
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ***********************************
>>>> Powered  by GetActive Software, Inc.
>>>> Relationship Management for Member  Organizations  (tm)
>>>> http://www.getactive.com
>>>> ***********************************
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>