I've been following the Peak Oil (PO) arguments for about a year, now. 
I'm sorry, but I do believe Climate Change (CC) is the #1 long-term 
threat. The PO protagonists are mostly extremist-style activists who 
prognosticate that the world will drop into total anarchy within the 
next few years. OK, the facts, as I see it:

1. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough oil from known 
and proven reserves for at least 50 years.

2. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough natural gas from 
known and proven reserves for at least 100 years.

3. At our present rate of consumption, there is enough coal from known 
and proven reserves for at least 300 years.

4. We are hitting a ceiling on the rate of extraction of oil within the 
next 5 - 10 years because, as the easy-to-extract oil is depleted, so we 
have to use more difficult-to-extract sources with lower flow rates. The 
price of oil will increase, foreseeably to $100/bbl within a couple of 
years or so.

5. The increased price will force swingeing increases in energy costs 
which will make alternative sources more interesting.

6. If we burn all the reserves in 1, 2 and 3 above, bearing in mind the 
residence time of CO2 is 300 years, the CO2 loading in the atmosphere 
will increase from about 360 ppm today (from 280 ppm 150 years ago) to 
over 500 ppm, which is estimated to cause a global temperature increase 
of 5° - 10°C. This is a dire threat to millions of people, but it is 
impossible to predict the results.

7. As oil becomes more costly, there will be a tendency to swing towards 
increased use of NG and coal. NG is less potent a CO2 generator, but it 
is estimated that 5% of all the gas that is extracted is emitted through 
infrastructure leaks and venting etc. As CH4 is ~35 times more powerful 
as a GHG than CO2, increased use will be negative, not positive. Coal, 
is, of course, the most carbonaceous of all fossil fuels (and the dirtiest).

8. I conclude, at this point, that we must reduce the use of ALL fossil 
fuels ASAP. In this way, we shall also extend the longevity of our known 
reserves, so that future generations may also profit from them, and thus 
delay PO, PNG and PC. This will make the impact of these phenomena less 
important.

9. As an aside, sequestration of GHGs is a pipe-dream (see 
http://www.cypenv.org/Files/sequest.htm )

10. What can we use for fuels to replace fossil fuels without dropping 
our style of life significantly, using proven technology?

11. Transport. Scrap all gas guzzlers, SUVs etc. by decree. Replace them 
with cars like the Prius, which has a fraction of the consumption, 
especially for urban use. Scrap all aircraft flights of <1000 km. Use 
high-speed trains for passenger and goods transport. Remove trucks from 
the road for all distances of >150 km in areas served by high-speed trains.

12. Electricity. Use fixed renewables (e.g., wide-range tide, biomass 
and trash combustion/gasification) to a maximum. Use variable renewables 
(wind, solar, wave) up to 20% of peak demand (limit of grid stability). 
Use nuclear for the rest. (We have the technology of several centuries 
of uranium and thorium reserves.)

13. Housing. Make excellent insulation mandatory in all buildings to 
reduce heating and aircon requirements. Domestic heating should be 
uniquely electric from nuclear/renewable sources.

14. Energy conservation. This is an essential part of 21st c. life. 
Tungsten lamps should be declared illegal etc. Anyone found using 
extraordinary amounts of energy should be sanctioned.

15. Research. Government funding for all of the above should be of 
primary importance.

16. Countries not conforming to the Kyoto Protocol (which entered into 
force yesterday), its future amendments and other such international 
measures should have severe trade sanctions imposed on them.

Brian has spoken!

David Douthit wrote:
> Joe,
> 
> I share your concern about global warming but I don't think
> it's the number 1 environmental concern.
> 
> It will become a moot point in about 30 years.
> Go to http://eclipsenow.org
> 
> David A. Douthit
> Manager
> LoCan LLC
> 
> Joe Fjelstad wrote:
> 
>> Forwarded for your consideration...
>>
>>
>>
>>> Have you heard about the Climate Stewardship Act? It's  a
>>> bipartisan bill in Congress to undo global warming. And  your
>>> help is needed to get it passed.
>>>
>>> Global warming is  the number 1 environmental issue we face. And
>>> America -- the largest  global warming polluter -- needs to act.
>>>
>>> Environmental Defense is  working to get 1 million people to sign
>>> the online Emissions Petition in  support of this bill. Hundreds
>>> of thousands have already signed. Please,  do as I did and sign
>>> the petition today. It's easy -- just use the link  below:
>>>
>>> http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/globalwarming_petition?rk=_paG6nF1EcJTW 
>>>
>>>
>>> ***********************************
>>> Powered  by GetActive Software, Inc.
>>> Relationship Management for Member  Organizations  (tm)
>>> http://www.getactive.com
>>> ***********************************
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>